Thursday, 15 August 2013

Cresbld - The Silent Hunter

Most stock had peaked out, from reasonable level to unreasonable level while some are going from unreasonable level to even more unreasonable level as "frying" take place. We had in the past 1 year saw how Gold was fried up to breaking levels, and how REITs in Malaysia had been fried as well which is rather a rare occasion to say. I still remember the time where i bought my first batch of SUNREIT at RM 1.03, and didn't expect SUNREIT to be able to hit RM 1.70 so fast. It seems like the market really had nothing to fry anymore and they even take REITs for a ride. Kudos to those who fry the REIT market, you guys are great. Hahaha

When there seems to be nothing good to ride on after market peaking after another peak and show no signs of a stop, it had came to my attention for a tiny little counter which had been laying quite quietly with not much activities being sighted, trying to lay himself low enough for some good accumulation.

Let me bring to you - Crest Builder Holdings Berhad.

Looking at the technicalities of the trades, the counter had been laying quiet without much prominent movement that will get attention while it takes its time to consolidate on the price and volume, take it's based on RM 1.35. As we can see that the consolidation had been around 3 to 4 months, it would be time again for a greater volume to come and visit the counter again for a greater heights soon.

Core business in construction with mega client like Gamuda and Sunway, their order book seems to be healthy with incoming projects coming in along the way. At the moment, they are running 3 big projects, namely Menara Wakaf, Menara Worldwide and Northshore Garden while they had completed quite a good number of projects in Putrajaya and KL.

Standing at PER of 5.30 based on FYE 2012 with 30.7 cents EPS backed by a revenue of RM695m and a consistent dividend at 5 cent, NTA growing at RM 2.30 per share, I believe that Cresbld will be another catalyst in the 3rd and 4th quarter of 2013.

The recent 1Q result had been great with EPS starting with 4.7cents and NTA growing to RM 2.35,
and the 2nd quarter result will just be around the corner soon within this few days or couple of weeks to come, which will definitely be bringing Cresbld towards greater heights in no time.

In conclusion,
Fundamentally good and great in technical outlook, this will be definitely a good moment to look at Cresbld for your next investment decision. I am looking at Cresbld to achieve at minimal of 10% growth and settled down at RM 1.50 in no time soon, while for a longer term, we might be looking at RM 1.70.

Join the ride or see the ride, you decide.
Happy trading.


Digi - Synergizing with Gpacket, a better move?

It had been some time since I last visited my Green Horse as the momentum take a chill and had turned the focus to some other sectors for some quick trades, namely Supermax, Redtone, Perdana and Gadang. After a series of good trades, I would deem it fit for me to look at Green Packet once again for its unresolved mystery that is putting a big question mark into our head.

As I had come upon this article from The Star which entitled Digi poised for higher margin, I am starting to sense something here which might possibly reflect into something material soon in time to come.

After reading the whole article, I would like to share my opinion which is read in between the lines.

I think that the possible synergy between Digi and Gpacket might not be a merger in which we will see Gpacket get delisted from the KLSE, in fact, Digi will be looking towards a business trust structure, which I would see it at Digi owning possibly more than 51% of Gpacket shares in order to gain control of the company.

Why would Digi not merge with Gpacket?

"It however, expressed caution on XL Axiata amid speculation of a steep price that it may pay for Axis, which in turn created a misconception that XL Axiata may also lose the spectra owned by Axis upon a (potential) merger, hence, defeating the purpose of the acquisition."

We might probably read it in a simple term as if Digi merge with Gpacket, Digi might risk paying a high price if Gpacket losses it spectra of 20MHz awarded by MCMC if they both come under one roof because MCMC only award 20MHz to Digi and merging Gpacket to Digi doesn't naturally spell out Digi can be allocated with 40MHz. And for this, the core reason for Digi to be interested in Gpacket for a business trust relationship will be definitely for the 20MHz spectra which will be the weapon for them to launch their LTE network.

Gpacket is quite heavily debt laden company for the moment, and it's financial position doesn't spell anything good at all to investor with money sucking infrastructural maintenance and expenses every month without enough subscription to even breakeven on the cost. In an easy understanding manner, Gpacket is truly desperate for a savior to come and bail them out and not let their spectra go down to the drain.

In the other hand, Digi is always been an underdog in the race with Maxis and Celcom. 3G or 4G, they always lose out in rolling out compared to the others. As they are 6 months behind their competitor, every day is a counting day for them, and every day they will continue to lose customer that will want to enjoy the speed of LTE network. In short, Digi is truly desperate for someone to share some of their spectra for them to build the LTE network.

As desperate demand and supply meets, the only way to get out of this mess is to let Digi "bail" Gpacket out now.

The main question always pop out when listed company get married, who will benefit from the merge, acquisition or whatsoever terms they may put. There will always be punters to look at who will get the better advantage and who will be the underdog again. A quick look will definitely see Gpacket being benefiting more and Digi will be scrambling to pay out Gpacket's leftover shits for years if Digi will be taking Gpacket as subsidiary. But not all are bad for Digi either as I would not be surprise that the infrastructure base installed by Gpacket will be shared or used by Digi to strengthened their weak signals and also a better platform to launch their LTE program with a better coverage.

What about Gpacket after giving out some of their spectrum out to Digi? Close shop? I am guessing Gpacket will continue to run the same but without network infrastructural cost over their head as Digi might be taking over the maintenance as they might be able to do better compared to Gpacket, or they have more in house technical team that can save some cost on this.

Well, above are all pure opinion and thoughts from me. I am looking for Gpacket to take a quick run towards RM 0.50 to RM 0.60 range when volume returns as public floating shares will be badly needed soon.

Monday, 12 August 2013

Movie Review - Percy Jackson and the Seas of Monster

It had been a great holiday with 4 days away from the share market last week , I had been able to catch up with some of the latest movie screening, Percy Jackson - Sea of Monster with other typical movie goers, scrambling for some good seats at Mid Valley GSC cinema.

Well, the whole movie is not too bad. The plot is not too bad, but there it is not to the standards that I am expecting from a movie with a great title. Frankly speaking, I am feeling some sort of "Harry Porter" in the making here and will be definitely expecting another release soon.

The movie, for me, might be lacking of some magical experience. After the movie, I don't think that I really can remember any spectacular magical experience,  except for the healing power of the Golden Fleece, which is quite an ordinary magical experience to say. Furthermore, Kronos seems to be too cheap in this movie, and its defeat is quite predictable after Percy land the sword into the leg of Kronos. I was expecting something more devastating and more magical experiences in the fight. And not to mention when Luke revive Kronos, if you are a person who like to predict, you will too predict that Kronos will eat up Luke.

Anyhow, it is still not too bad either. I hope that they will be able to do better props for the Cyclops home at Circeland island rather than using some funny light bulbs. I was expecting something more eerie and dungeon kind of feel for a killer Cyclops, not those kiddies.

Well, not to critic so much, I will definitely wait for the second instalment of Percy Jackson soon and hope it will be much better that time

Happy watching