Tuesday, 28 May 2013

Gpacket - On a Major Tech Stunner

It had been quite some while since my last post on stocks market as the market had been raveling on it's own in quite a good manner lately until the correction lately which saw quite a number of stock coming back down. However, I would want to salute all those who had held on to their stock thorough the journey of the GE13, as I would say that their move is a big risk with a big reward altogether. A lot of the stock had been jumping like mad horses while pennies stock had seen jumping in double or triple fold.

I had missed out quite a number of fun as I had noticed that this time around, analyzing the market with past historical data might not be really accurate as market behavior switches very fast - Or it is really manipulated heavily? I still remember those days during GE12 when BN had lost 2/3 of the parliamentary seats which saw the KLCI tumbling like nobody business. This time around, BN still did not retain back the 2/3 majority, however, market reacted other way, which is quite surprising to many traders, and I am one of them who got caught in this lies.

Today I would like to bring to you one of the major Tech Stunner that could happen in the market soon - Gpacket. Some of you might have know what is going to happen, while some might still be in the blues and wondering what will be the latest happening in the Technology Market.

Let's have a quick look at the chart of Gpacket as of now.

As we can see that the stock had saw a rise in trading volumes on the lower side of the price after the stock had been collected in a major manner when it first started to spike and break 60 cents 7 months back.

Looking at the Telecommunication Market Outlook, we have Maxis launching their 4G LTE along with Celcom riding on the bandwagon too. As the Broadband market starts to rise to a new standard through 4G LTE with a proud speed of more than 30 mbps, that is something a user might want to look forward to with that kind of speed and start to forget about 328kbps, 512 kbps or 1 mbps. So, what about - Digi the underdog?

As Gpacket is running on high infrastructure cost and unable to breakeven from it's collection, there is nothing really valuable left in Gpacket, except for it's 20mbps spectrum awarded by MCMC. Other than that, they are just sitting on a pile of big debts that is squeezing their pocket dry and drier - How long can Gpacket maintain in this manner unless there is an unlimited pocket from the shareholders. I would say that standalone broadband provider is not a good choice as it is not competitive in the Telecommunication market as other operators are able to give Voice + Data together.

In my own opinion and outlook, by combining all this together, you can see a desperate buyer to get more spectrum for a better 4G LTE and a desperate seller that is running in a huge negative and waiting for a saint. Who can be the Saint?

I would believe that in the end of Q2 2013, there will be something material happening in Gpacket. If we are looking at a buyout at around RM 1billion, we might be looking at Gpacket shares valued at RM 1.30+ per share, which is almost 3 times of the current value. Of course I had not factored in the big lump of debts in Gpacket.

In a very conservative manner, I am looking for Gpacket to break RM 0.45 in the coming days, and foreseeing it to retouch RM 0.60 in the coming weeks.

Bone's short term TP : RM 0.50

Cheers and Happy Trading.

Monday, 27 May 2013

Waseong - What next in Pipeline

FBMKLCI has back to it's normal trading volume previous week after the dynamically traded week after the GE-13. I believe my recent post on steel industry does not disappointed readers who follow my picks, after Steel industry, Technology sector will be the next I would like to eyeing on it. Recently, there is a few counter under this category  is performing good on the share price and I expect more to come. Perhaps green is good and the only green for me is money, maybe GreenPacket will define my perception on color.  Catcha, another rumour come into my ears lately, of course time will tell whether it a Catcha call or Gotcha call.

Well, counter I would like to share today is neither from Steel industry nor Technology industry. Oil & Gas sector, one of the most popular sector  in KLSE, a lot Oil & Gas counter is performing too under current bull run market. But the one to be highlighted will be Waseong, one of the pipe coat solutions leader in this industry.

Not long ago, Waseong has entered into a JV agreement with Japan's Shinko Ind Ltd to actualize the business of manufacturing turbines and other related ancillary equipment. This is a remarkable milestone for the group for its expansion in renewable energy industry as the group is able to derive advance technology through technology transfer from the JV.However, I'm quite conservative on the estimation that how positive is this JV will contribute to the group's earnings.

Let's have a more details movement of share price from the chart,

The share price suddenly spike up with volume and  trading in the range of RM 1.96 and RM 2.11. After the spike up since 10th of May, the share price is building a support at RM 1.96 to take a breather before the next rally. My 1st TP will be RM 2.18 which is the current major resistant and if the share price is able to standing above it, RM 2.30 will be the following TP. However, there is a possibility that the share price will being press even lower than current support as market might continue its correction mode in next few days.

Cheers and Happy Trading,
Bone's Apprentice

Wednesday, 8 May 2013

Steel Industry - A Star Out of Sight

Steel, a major component in buildings, infrastructure, tools, automobiles and machines. Malleable, versatile and strong making steel the most ideal material in this world. In 19th century, the innovation of large scale production of steel turn steel being cheap and cost efficient. In short, if there is no steel, there is no railway, no train, no machines. etc resulting modern industrialisation become impossible. 

The steel industry playing a key role in economy, some experts even look the steel industry as an indicator of how well the economy is doing.

In fact, steel industry is seems to be neglected in KLSE due to its long term downtrend. Lionind and Kinstel is the tow top picks of mine in steel counter listed on KLSE. Other than Lionind and Kinstel, I also spotted that there is a potential surge up for Perwaja and CSCSteel in coming days. 

Let's have a quick look on the chart of Lionind and Kinstel,

Share price of Lionind dropped for few days in a row after the price shoot up from RM 0.905. After the correction and the contra player being wipe out, Lionind is building a good pit stop at RM 0.98 with a support at RM 0.965. Once RM 1.03, the closing price of 9th April is break, Lionind will testing the next resistance at RM 1.15

Coincidently, the volume and the share price of Kinstel spike up on the same day Lionind surge up. After T4, the share price of Kinstel is forming a good pattern for another rally. I'm looking forward to seeing the price touch RM 0.38 when it break through the consolidate zone of RM 0.305 - RM 0.345.

At here, I would like to apologise for the late update as the share price of Lionind and Kinstel actually already started moving up. But it still never too late for this profitable ride.

Cheers and Happy Trading,
Bone's Apprentice

Thursday, 2 May 2013

SPR Dirty Play in GE 13 - Exposed

Here comes some of the voter registration that is going to be represented by Bangla, Indonesian, Myammar worker or whatever they can have.

Let's start with Pahang.

For all those Pemantau who are stationed at Pahang or whoever got connection, get ready your gunny sack to nab the Bangla :D

This is how clean our Election is. Email and spread this out.

Good to circulate to your BN supporters and friends, especially to Pahang people so that they will wake up and see how BN needs to win.