Tuesday, 26 November 2013

Mtdacpi - Bridging on a stronger note

The bull had continued to linger strongly in the market as it prepares for a larger party in the coming December. With the DJIA index going stronger now, I believe that the market is still bullish for an upcoming run.

As many company had been reporting their 3rd quarter result on this season with Malaysia reporting a 5% growth in the GDV, we will be seeing more revenue kicking into company, especially those with government projects.

One of the company that had been on my look out is none other than Mtdacpi 5924. Let's have a chart outlook on Mtdacpi.

This company had been awarded with RM 500m worth of MRT projects. As we can see the progress of MRT projects going on smoothly with claims coming in stage by stage, Mtdacpi, with 231m shares issued is projected to see an increase of revenue in the coming quarter which will be going to be announced soon in the coming days.

Mtdacpi had been experiencing an increase of revenue pegging at 67m for the 1st quarter. The coming up second quarter which is projected to see more revenue to kick into their financial statement will be probably projected at another RM 70m to RM 80m in their revenue, which could possibly reflect an EPS of 1 cents in their 2nd quarter earning.

On a quick outlook, Mtdacpi had been seeing consolidation on it's price as I would believe that the next upcoming volume surge will definitely bring Mtdacpi towards a greater heights soon based on the impending 3rd Quarter result.

Mtdacpi should be able to go up to RM 0.55 in a short term basis, while a longer tenure outlook will be seeing Mtdacpi trading above RM 0.60.

Bone's short term TP: RM 0.55

Cheers and regards,

Wednesday, 20 November 2013

Tanco - Breaking The Dawn Light

While the market continues it's bull charge once again with KLCI positioning itself right above 1800 immediately after a quick correction, counterparts in the West had been continue to deliver as DJIA had been looking at conquering the 16000 mark with S&P 500 testing the 1800 heavily too. Market is always unpredictable, but if you are trying to predict the market, you are going to end up worst as some will stand strong on their wrong prediction as the fire burn through their pockets.

While Malaysia had been growing from strength to strength, I would expect stronger revenue being recorded on nearly most company which are at least fundamentally sound in their management. However, despite on the vast selection, Tanco had recently caught up with my eyes on their next corporate development.

Tanco had been running in the dark for the past many years and had just recently able to settle of with the liquidator claims on their borrowing from Lehman Brothers. While they are still swimming in debts without a proper source of income to finance the debt and interest, the recent EGM on 8th November 2013 had approve to Tanco do undergo a Debt Capital Restructuring Program where RM0.80 of the Par Value of RM 1.00 will be restructured out from 334,886,726 shares, amounting to a whopping RM267.909 million, which is a strong enough cash to turn the company to debt free.

Tanco had been sitting on a large land bank particularly in Port Dickson with a boastful 400 acres beach waterfront land bank. On an on going concern for the company, Tanco had received approval on the plans for the development of the 400 acres of land into one of the largest beach waterfront leisure and resort center in the Peninsula Malaysia with a featured water themed park. The project, named Splash Park, carries a RM 5b GDV tagline, will be split into a few phases with the first phase featuring approximately 200 units of hotel suites with high GRR returns to investor for 9 years.

While the challenges are huge, Tanco had been collaborating closely with the Best and Top Real Estate Agency in Malaysia - GS Realty Sdn Bhd in this project. GS Realty Sdn Bhd boasting more than 10,000 negotiators in Klang Valley alone and a strong and vast network, with their persistence, creativity and skills in selling, GS Realty had displayed their success in 2 major highlighting projects in Malaysia.

- i-City,Shah Alam
Pioneer team to spear head the i-SOVO and i-Residence projects inside i-City from July 2012. IBhd had been trading at 80 cents range at the time being. i-SOVO priced at RM500 per square feet sold out 90% in 2 weeks.While condominium had not been popular in Shah Alam, GS Realty had taken the challenge to wrap up the i-Residence condominium as well. Currently, i-SOHO had been going strong as well. IBhd traded above RM 3.00 on May 2013.

- Hatten City, Melaka.
Another pioneering team that had remained with the developer throughout the rough waters for 5 years. Hatten Square had finally been packaged into a prominent place in Melaka now with retail lots selling at more than RM1000 psf.

As I believe Tanco had been in their low moment for the time being, I believe the successful roll out in Splash Park will definitely spark a new dawning light for this company in the coming days. Sitting on a RM5b GDV will be good enough to keep Tanco busy for the next upcoming 3 to 5 years in their book orders soon.

On a quick technical outlook, Tanco will definitely poised to raise higher on a high surge of volume fueled by corporate exercise and their key project in line. A quick outlook will definitely see Tanco test on RM 0.20 while probably break into the region of RM 0.25 soon. While there are rumors that Phase 1 had a quick snatch up rate of more than 100 units being booked, I believe more unit could be snatched up soon. A longer term outlook will position Tanco trading into RM 0.30 to RM 0.40 in the coming days, while should Splash Park is fully completed, Tanco could be probably trading at RM 1.00 region again.

Bone's short term TP : RM 0.22

Cheers and happy trading.


Tuesday, 19 November 2013

PTB - Return Of The King

A few days ago, I had been seeing people calling for a sell, major down fall of the market with all sort of predictions from big hand shorting to small hand doing nothing, thus and so on. However, just a glimpse of an eye, the DJIA had went up again breaking the mark of 16000 on a stronger note as economist had been pulling up together to make the world a better world. I would sum up that one could never really time the market.

The KLSE had been maintaining well and would probably poised for a better run in the 1800 region soon as the Q3 of Malaysia had recorded a spectacular 5% increase of GDP whereas counterpart like Hong Kong had been slipping of from the expected benchmark.

As the 3rd quarter of Malaysia GDP had displayed a stronger result with a stunning 5%, I would believe counter like PTB could be in a high possibility of benefiting from this growing GDP in Malaysia.

Let's have a quick look on PTB charting. As interesting as it can be, PTB had been actually laying off in a low mark for the past 2 years as their financial had been running on a rough mountain, but things had started to take a turn when they had displayed a stronger 1st quarter and 2nd quarter earning on FYE 2013 which had taken some attention from the market as a unidentified gem.

PTB had been primarily manufacturing power cable with 2 wholly owned subsidiary manufacturing conductor shield and insulator for power cable up to 35KV, and also the core material for the power cable. The massive growing sector in the properties and construction industry had definitely spiral up many other sectors, and for this case, it should not be spared as well. PTB had rumored in securing book order that could amount to RM150m fueled by demand from construction and infrastructural projects from government which could be having them occupied for FYE 2013 and FYE 2014.

While Malaysia had been aiming to become a high income nation, I believe that many more major government contracts will continue give the economy a boost especially from the infrastructure, construction and the oil and gas industry.

The technical outlook had signaled out interest in PTB as a 2 months consolidation effort had come to a saturation. PTB had been sitting on a steady EPS of 0.52 cents per quarter. At 1.04 cents EPS for 1st half of 2013, PTB had been trading at x12 PER now. Should PTB be able to perform on the same or better EPS for Q3, a forward earning EPS of 2.08 cents for FYE 2013 will translate to RM 0.20 for PTB, trading on a x 10 PER. However, on a growing note, PTB could possibly hit up to 3 cents EPS for FYE 2013 when the order book continue stronger, with that, PTB could be marking it's way towards 25 cents in the longer run.

On a short term outlook, I believe PTB is poised to challenge a higher mark at RM 0.17 on the anticipating for Q3 result. A longer term solid outlook will position PTB above 20 cents in the coming days.

Bone's short term TP : RM 0.17

Cheers and happy trading.


Friday, 15 November 2013

Ecofirs - Carbon to Diamond

I believe quite a number of people had been caught pants down on the sudden sell down which had been spurred by the selling of the foreign stakes in the local market especially on the index linked counter. The sell down is highly linked on the strengthening of the US Dollars, or you would want to see it as the weakening of RM against the USD? Well, it is up to the eyes of the beholder to see a cup which is half full, or half empty. However, during this period of ant-bite meltdown, does this trigger you to sell, or buy?

As Yellen had initiate a statement which could possibly indicate the QE will continue through the winter, what is your take again on this? Ride or see?

While the broad market had been always a big guessing game, I would still believe that our local market is still good in a manner that it is partially on it's own world somehow as I would like to introduce to you yet another interesting counter to be looked at - Ecofirst Consolidated Berhad, known as Ecofirs (3557).

A quick glance at the chart will definitely inform you on the substantial interest that had been poured into the company as the volume had been traded on a fairly large manner compared to it's normal season. I would believe the game had still a long way to go as this is just another small consolidation on the price and the volume. As the broad market had resume it's confidence, I believe it is time for investor to pounce on some potential target once again.

Ecofirst had been a rather low profile diversified company with Properties, Construction, Bio Organic and Mineral Resources under their belt of business. While the past 10 years had been a rough ride for Ecofirst, Ecofirst had persevered throughout the journey and strive the best out of them as they had undergone certain key pointer in restructuring the team and effectively eliminate the waste of resources and redundancy in their management.

The latest Q1 for FYE 2014 had earmarked a 3.24 cents EPS which had been rather spectacular as this result was the best performing quarter in the 10 years time frame. Ecofirst, better known as the developer behind South City Plaza, together with the recent development of The Academia which had been fully sold out like hot peppers had spin the place from good to better. South City Plaza had been growing on their tenant and had since doing great as the place had grow in a large scale due to the attraction of The Academia which had attracted local investor to realize the potential of the place. On the side note, 1 Segamat which had been revived on 2010 had saw it's opening receiving thunderous support as tenant went on a mild rampage in securing a spot in the mall.

Ever since the restructuring in their management team on a better and prudent management, Ecofirst had seen a better transformation under the helm Dato Tiong Kwing Hee, Ecofirst had continue to gain major shareholder confidence and support as the Teoh family had continue to register their shareholder to a higher percentage from the public.

I believe that Ecofirst will be another stunner in the market in time to come as they continue to perform better in the coming quarters.

A quick calculation will put Ecofirs into trading at PER of x6.1 just sitting solely on Q1 2014 EPS of 3.24 cents. Should Ecofirs continue to perform on a skeptical rate of 2 cents for the next 3 quarters, we might be looking for a total EPS of 10 cents for FYE 2014, translating to a potential of RM 0.60 should Ecofirs trade on a x6 PER.

A quick outlook will suggest Ecofirs to be hitting RM 0.25 on a short term basis, while a longer term outlook which is back by stronger quarterly result will definitely be lifting Ecofirs out of the 20 cents zone in no time, probably lingering in 40 cents to 60 cents region.

Game on? You decide.

Bone's short term TP: RM 0.25

Cheers and have a good day.


Tuesday, 12 November 2013

Dolomite - Striking Sky High

While some people are talking about big sell down on the US market and a big bear is going to attack the market soon, it had been rather immune to me to be bothered about the US movement for the moment as I believe that the Malaysian market is somehow or rather playing amongst themselves and is not consider the foreign market too often unless there is something really major and big that is happening. As for me, I will continue to look out for better options that is lying there for me to find out.

While the DJIA had been going up again and had been nearing the 16000 mark, our KLCI index had been still laying in the controlled zone between 1750 and 1800 where some of the analyst had been forecasting that Malaysia index could be hitting up a high of 2000 point at the end of the year or beginning of the year 2014. Averaging 50 points a month for 2 consecutive month, anyone is going to buy this analyst?

I would rather find Dolomite Corporation Berhad, known as DOLMITE 5835 in the KLSE exchange board, an interesting counter to be ponder upon.

Dolomite had been laying in the wild for more than 3 years as they had been rather inactive throughout the period without any substantial development in the market which would put them into the lime light. However, it is not remaining as it was now as the company had been taking a change shift now.

Well known to be lingering at the region of 30 cents without any interesting volume, Dolomite had came to the picture when they had started to do better in their financial for a start.

A very quick glance will be showing that Dolomite had been doing better for the current 2 quarters with a cumulative EPS of 4.41 cents for the 1st half of FYE 2013. While the Q3 report for FYE 2013 will be just around the corner, I would believe that Dolomite Q3 for FYE 2013 will not be disappointing with the following reason:

- A stronger book order on their stone quarry as many development in the Klang Valley had been in their construction stage. Demand will continue to rise further as more projects start to kick off.
- Limited output in supplies to cater on rising demands will automatically spur a better margin in the products.
- Their local projects, Dolomite Templer, sold out, will be looking to see a better turn for Dolomite.

On a very skeptical measure , should Dolomite continues to perform on a average of 2 cents EPS per quarter, we are probably looking at 8 cents EPS for FYE 2013, trading on a x8 P/E ratio will interpret to a RM 0.64 in the medium to long run. However, if we take into consideration for a growing EPS due to the stronger demand in their products, there is chances of a growing EPS at 3.5 cents for Q3 and 4.5 cents for Q4, which might interpret Dolomite to somewhere at RM 0.80 in the coming days.

As the technical outlook for Dolomite had been promising with stronger volume backed up on the bullish candle with a last minute huge buy up effort, I am expecting Dolomite to be hitting a short term price of RM 0.50 soon as larger amount of volume flows into the counter.

Bone's short term TP : RM 0.50

Cheers and Happy trading.


Friday, 8 November 2013

Fitters - On the Fittest Charge

While property segment had been downgraded in the recent Budget 2014 announcement that had put a major roadblock in the speculation of the properties by implementing a 30% RPGT for the first 3 years of the flipping and a minimum of RM 1million for foreigner to purchase a property in Malaysia, could there be no light in this industry anymore for the coming 2 to 3 years run? Most of the Malaysian had welcomed the government to intervene into such an extend, there are still pros and cons related to this matter. Malaysian property - too expensive? Or, not too expensive, but had reach a level where most Malaysian could not afford?

Despite the measure being implemented, I would still believe that they will still be roses amongst thorns and mud in the making as I would like to highlight to you - Fitters Diversified Berhad.

A very quick glance will show you that Fitters had been trading off at the range of RM 0.70 to RM 0.80 for the past 6 months after the strong rally back then at the beginning of May 2013 which had saw Fitters charging forward from 60 cents to a high mark of 85 cents.

As of recent, Fitters had been consolidating well at the level of 70 cents as it's performance for the 1H for FYE 2013 had been roaring in a seemingly loud level with a boastful EPS of 7.21 cents for 2 cumulative quarters, with Q2 of FYE 2013 performing better than Q1 of FYE 2013 as their project revenue starts to kick in stage by stage.

With a healthy book order which consist of local and overseas project, I believe that Fitters positioned is not in anyway affected in a huge manner as they bolster with diversified sector under their wings. The local highlights in the prime area of Setapak with Zeta Park on the lead which had been fully sold out had been churning in revenue stage by stage as I foresee that their Zeta DeSkye is not going for a shy walk in the market too.

Beside being a developer, Fitters had under their belt, Z'odd Design Sdn Bhd which had been involved in Themed Park construction and design in a global manner. Other sectors includes trading of fire safety tools and equipment, M&E expertise, and renewable energy.

As the Q3 result is lurking around the corner, I believe that Fitters EPS for Q3 will continue to be consistent as they continue to derive revenue from the projects with a projected EPS of 3.5 cents for Q3 and 4 cents for Q4.

Should the project goes according to the timeline, then we might be possibly looking at a total EPS of 14 cents for FYE 2013, which will translate that Fitters might be trading at a fairly low P/E level of x5 for the moment. Taking into industry skeptical PER of x7, Fitters could be valued at RM 0.98 at the back of 14 cents EPS, while a PER of x10 will interpret into a possible mark of RM 1.40 for Fitters.

As Fitters had been a fundamentally sound company, a quick technical outlook at Fitters will suggest that Fitters is in no time in reaching back to RM 0.80 in a short term measure, while a medium to longer term outlook will suggest Fitters in trading at RM 1.00.

Bone's short term TP: RM 0.80

Cheers and happy trading.


Wednesday, 6 November 2013

MBL - Crouching Palm Hidden Oil

The market continues on it's auto pilot mode as the negative news had been thrown into the caves for the time being before they emerge to haunt us again. Are you still sitting on a pile of cash like our local fund management group at I-Capital where they continue to wait for the rabbit to run off course and hit the tree?

As we leap into the Q4 of 2013, it had been seasonal for most of the South East Asia countries to see heavy raining seasons as the cloud unleashed the flood gates to the earth. It is unforgettable for me to see how the flood water had in turn lifted JCY from a pile of ashes to a gold mine in the hard disk industry during 2011. This time around, could it be a hit for CPO as the rainy season had been disrupting the harvesting for Palm Oil.

The CPO prices had been a hit lately with the rainy seasons as we had witnessed CPO prices hitting above RM 2600 a ton, while analyst had been forecasting that the CPO price can hit as high as RM 3000 a ton in December with the rising global demand.

Muar Ban Lee Group, or known as MBL, is a leader in the Malaysia Palm Oil Industry which specialized in palm kernel oil expeller and oil expeller machinenery. With the rising surge in CPO, MBL is not ruling out himself for yet another party season with the bullish CPO.

Let's have a quick look at MBL share price.
MBL had saw some recent spikes which had been consolidating off at RM 1.10 to RM 1.15. We would be seeing a surge in volume for the next few days as a forecast ranging around 1m to 2m volume might be coming in which will bring the price of the share further up. With only 92m share issued, I believe MBL will be poised to challenge higher as their Q3 for FYE 2013 is positioned to give a major come back from the previous 2 quarter which is slightly lower from expectation performance.

Should the CPO continue to inch higher, I believe MBL will continue to benefit from this hike and will be positioning to tackle RM 1.30 in a short term outlook while a medium-longer term outlook will suggest MBL might not be shy of trying RM 1.50.

Bone's short term TP: RM 1.25

Cheers and happy trading.


Monday, 4 November 2013

MPI - Silicon Diamond

While the DJIA had been rebounding back to it's bullish moment yet again as they end their week in a positive note at +69.80 to inch the index to 15615.55, both S&P500 and Nasdaq had been lingering in the greenish zone too as market had prepared for yet another rally again. It seems to me that the bear had been attacking in a fast and furious manner while the bull had to charge with their horns and push it with their blood and sweat to push things higher.

As Apple and Samsung had been no alien to you and me, we had saw how these two tech giants had been conquering the smart phone segment from turning this niche market into a mass market as their products bolster on the functions, convenience, ease of use and most importantly - always stay connected. Gone are the days of Nokia, when I remember Nokia 3210 can literally kill a dog when being thrown at.

While the maddening sales figure had gone from mad to crazy on the sales of smart phone which had been selling like hot cakes when they are being bundled up by operators with Data plans, what about the "organs" that make up the smart phone - semi conductors?

Let me bring forth to you - MPI, a leading manufacturer for the semi conductor industry.

MPI had been trading at a market value of RM 5 to RM 6 back then at 2009 and 2010, while the sliding margin in the industry had been shredding off market value. While MPI had been spending more than 1 year in consolidating below RM 3.00 mark, it had came to light when the semi conductor industry had seen demand surging with the US leading at +23.3% increase in demand. A quick look out will be suggest that MPI will be challenging back the mark at RM 3.00 as they are taking this golden opportunity to rebound from the low.

The recent revenue which had been more than RM 1.2b had saw the group recover as we continue to see a surging demand in the IT gadgets, most importantly contributed by the higher margin in the smart phone and tablet segment as MPI major market comes from the US and Europe country.

Sitting on a NTA of RM 3.78 and with strong cash flow, MPI had been value by Public Bank at RM2.90 to RM 3.00 as they bolster on strong asset in the balance sheet. I believe on the upcoming year of 2014, MPI will continue to see a positive note in this industry as the demand for IT gadgets which feature ultra small and mini semi conductors rolls. I believe that the complexity of the ultra small and mini semi conductor will definitely make their product a harder target for imitation. MPI will be easily challenging the RM 3.00 mark, and a longer tenure outlook will suggest that MPI will take this long term rebound to reposition themselves at RM 3.50 in the coming days.

Bone's short term TP : RM 3.00

Cheers and regards,

Friday, 1 November 2013

HoHup - Gems of the Gems?

The overall market had turn into slight correction after a seemingly tired and wear off bull had been charging from the lows of 1660 during the end of August 2013. As of today, KLCI had been sitting at 1806 points with 10 points being shred off today as correction take place.

While the market had been shredding points, the stories and happening behind HoHup could be rather an interesting one as the recent price movement activities between HoHup, FRB and Insas had in turn become more and more active being traded in the market for the past 3 months as the same boss behind this 3 company, Datuk Thong Kok Khee, had been trying to unlock the golds and diamond out before the financial cycle is turning towards a more bearish moment.

A very clear and straight forward look on both Insas and FRB will mark out that October 2013 had saw volume of both the 2 counters rising with the Datuk Thong direct purchases and company buy back occurred in Insas while Datuk Thong had also buy back through open market on FRB shares.

HoHup had been encountering the same buy back by Datuk Thong through open market which had spiral the stock way upwards to RM 1.80 in no time.

While there are news that HoHup flight is because of it's uplifting on their current PN17 status, I believe HoHup spikes had not been just so easy and will possibly be a take over and privatization target by FRB which had been holding more than 20% of stakes in HoHup. Many would be wondering why HoHup had suddenly turn from a charcoal to be a diamond.

Probably some of the facts will see why HoHup came from charcoal to diamond.
- HoHup owned 60 acre of land in Bukit Jalil. 50 acre developed by Malton which will possibly feature Pavillion 2, and might be bringing a GDV of RM 2b in estimation.
- HoHup entitlement for 18% of the GDV or a minimum or RM 220m, of which RM80m being cash advance for HoHup to restructure on their debts.
- HoHup 10 acre which is divided into Parcel A with GDV close to RM400m and near to 90% sold off, Parcel B is estimated with GDV more than RM500m with high ends condominium in their line. A combined total of RM900m in GDV.

A simple calculation will be looking at HoHup pocketing RM220m (confirmed amount) + 30% from estimation of RM900m GDV which is RM270m will resort to a total of RM490m in profits.
Standing at 102m shares, we are looking at an EPS of RM4.8 for the whole project period when earnings start to kick in.

With this being laid out, sources that are reliant had also informed that HoHup will be a privatized target by FRB which could take place in the 1st or 2nd quarter of 2014 as Datuk Thong will be looking to unlock HoHup value under his own umbrella using FRB and Insas.

On a quick outlook, HoHup is definitely a gem which should not be overlooked because of the PN17 status. A longer term outlook will suggest that HoHup might be trading at RM 2.40 (RM140m after less RM80m for debt repayment and 30% of RM400m from parcel A = RM260m. EPS = RM 2.55 per share) as time get closer and closer.

Bone's short term TP: RM 2.10 (upgrade)

Cheers and happy trading