Thursday, 31 May 2012

Get your bullets ready for first round

As you might have noticed that I hadn't been updating my blog on a very frequent basis, well, that is because I had been looking and monitoring through this sentiment.

Understand that the market is currently on it's downtrend, and sentiment are fragile when small issues can be amplified into huge big issues, while already happening Greece issue can be forgotten suddenly, and come to spot light suddenly as well.

Well, salute to script writers that had prepared different sets of news to be released all together, and media who are co-operate enough to be running the good show by turning traders up and down, left and right.

However, I believe that there should be a good first round injection soon. I had been preserving my capital for sometime to wait for good moments and hunt for some good trades, or rather some good mid to long holding counter, which might be interesting to some of the reader here, rather than short term trading counter which requires time to monitor on it.


Attached is my analysis and also signal that had been informing me about the bearish turn on the KLCI. Looking at the rebound back from low, you can easily identify the bouncing effect, with a huge curve, while the subsequent bouncing effect shows a weakening signs, indicating the urge to go higher has signs of weakness. And as of the last fleet, the index had been touching the support line, which had given a clear good indication on the coming up U-Turn on the KLCI.

For the time being, we might not be able to tell if the short term bearish will be a start of a good big bearish season, however with the GE in run soon, things might be taken a huge shock if the result of the GE is gonna be a good stunner, which will probably motivate the bearish signal.

However, GE related counter could still be a good play. Do remember to hedge your position on FKLI. Let's wait for more shaking before deciding to enter the market again.

Cheers and all the best.

Friday, 25 May 2012

Puncak - Tomorrow Never Dies

It had been 4 month since the hot talk of Puncak privatization above the mark of RM 2.00. However, as the talk of privatization arises, there had been much lawsuit emerging, involving the Selangor government as well.

Well, what could be so hot here? Is the privatization for real? Or just a gimmick? What about KHSB and KPS? And, can the privatization be related with the GE? What could be the result from the court hearing later tomorrow?

As of today, there had been huge speculation hurled at Puncak. While the truth will only be reveal on the right timing, and on the right occasion by the insider, we retailers will always be kept in the dark as usual.

However, on 23rd May 2012, there had been huge lots being parked at RM 1.28 (Amounting to 20k lots) on an accumulation basis. While things are fishy here, Puncak came with an announcement after market closure, to indicate that the hearing of result pertaining to the application to amend the statement of Claim by SYABAS will be adjourned to 25th May for a decision.
Refer here for source.

Today, Puncak had saw some good purchased with 70% buying rate in a sudden at the 2nd half of the day.

What could be awaiting inside Puncak? A monster brewing? Or an empty tin?

Let's have a quick look on Puncak chart.
On a quick outlook basis, we can be quite sure that there is a strong support at the point of RM 1.28 to RM 1.30, where this zone had been tested for a few time. And looking at the development, there might be something fishy happening behind, hence the support of RM 1.28 to Rm 1.30. As the previous hike to RM 1.40, the share had been consolidating off again, while we might be liken to be seeing another flight coming upwards after a long 3month consolidation of the peak of RM 1.88 limit up.

As tomorrow will be the hearing of the decision from the court, I will be anticipating some action in Puncak as speculation arises from it. With the irregular queue that I had spotted on 23rd, and the short spiked with strong and good buy rates at 70% today, tomorrow - Friday, might be a good day to see how Puncak will be working up on it's path.

On a short term outlook, I could be expecting Puncak to retouch RM 1.40, and not erasing chances of it hitting RM 1.50 as the momentum grow bigger.

Hence, let's see and witness what will Puncak brings to us. And, you will decide for your own to be in the game, or away of the game.

Cheers and have a good time.

Wednesday, 23 May 2012

MBF - Times Up ?

MBF had been a hit during the end of last year 2011 when the shares had been surging madly from a rather stagnant condition, in which we saw how the warrant from a lowly 4 cents, spiked up to more than 40 cents back then as the news about MBF privatization goes on air. Along side, there had been some news about major local banks like the looks of CIMB as well which will be taking MBF are in the talks as well. How close could this be?

Looking at the share holding spread already informed about the unhealthy spread from the major shareholder, with just a little bit more to trigger privatization for the remaining shares floating in the market. As the start of the rumor until now had been for a period of 6 month, I believe some new development will be arising from this counter soon in the coming days.

Today, MBF-wa had been trading in a rather active manner with huge lots sighted from 4pm onwards, pushing the warrant with an exercise value at RM1.00 (Mother price at RM 0.815) from 8 cents to a high of RM 0.115 in a rather staged manner, as volume took a toll until 6.1million shares transacted with a 71% buying rate.
Could this be an indication of some upcoming corporate development that could be announcing soon?

In my opinion, the movement of the warrant could be something like what happened to Kulim-CE, where huge buying is spotted, and subsequently with the mother share price being pushed up later. I believe MBF could be another company that will be privatized or taken over due to the upcoming GE to come.

For the time being, as buying momentum had been reflected in the warrant, MBF could be a good counter to be monitored once again for more good stuffs. On a quick outlook, MBF could be poising in hitting right back to RM 1.00, backed by their NTA standing at RM 1.738 per share for the current outlook, political development, and tighter time frame on Corporate Development as well for the readjustment on public shareholding.

Bone's TP : RM 0.90

Cheers and have fun.

Tuesday, 22 May 2012

Kulim - Rising on Corporate Developments

Kulim had been the much anticipated vehicle from the recent corporate development from QSR and KFC. As EPF had also been part of the entity that will be involved in this deal as well, and with the already tensioned up GE just lurking at around the corner, I guess thing must be completed as soon as possible, as the coming GE might be a hell for all the GLC companies.

As expected with more and more buy out, merger and acquisition, the latest is being KFC + QSR + Kulim combos.

From the 3, Kulim should be the one that is having a larger portion of attention. Probably the price hadn't meet their expectation, as I continue to believe thing will continue to get raunchy here in time to come, looking at how things had been traded for the time being.


As the news started back then at January this year, it had taken a toll to as high as RM 4.70 in the middle of February, before seeing a technical consolidation that had settled down at the range of RM 4.20 to RM 4.40 zone.

As Kulim had been reported of a special dividend of more than RM1.2 billion, that could easily work out to RM1 per share here, in which will be quite a good deal for such good stock.

Looking at the recent activity in the month of May, I think Kulim might be poising for higher surge in the coming days after consolidating for 3-4 months. It could be retesting RM 4.70 soon, and breaking it will be likely to see it testing RM 5.00 in the coming days.

In my opinion, I believe Kulim will continue to be a good stock to be monitored at, backed by the corporate development, EPF intervention and the upcoming GE, which will definitely sparks things to go in a faster pace.

Cheers

Sunday, 20 May 2012

Champion League 2012 - Chelsea

Congratulation to Chelsea on grabbing the trophy and being the Champion of UEFA Champion League 2012

For those who would want to see how things are scored.

Here is the video.


** Even fan when crazy and getting naked at the field.

To Bayern Munich and Tottenham fans, that is too bad. Maybe in 2012-2013 season.

I think Schweinsteiger is just under intense pressure to take the last kick. David Luiz penalty is like running a 100m and shooting it with power. That is cool.
Drogba seal the doubts away by handling a Bayern Munich the boot with the 4th successful penalty to seal the trophy.

Congratulation Chelsea.


Wednesday, 16 May 2012

Trading Amidst Uncertainty with Bearish Trend

The market had entered into a series of uncertainty, and of course, favoring a bearish outlook for the time being as news of the Euro debt crisis, coupled of with some DJIA flops had been starting to roll the ball from the peak of the mountain to the foothill as we are looking at the ice ball effect soon.

However, what could be a supporting factor is that there will be some political forces which are supporting the sentiment, with the looks like US on the node of election, in which I do not rub away the long talked QE3 to come into the drama in a rather sudden mode. Anything could happen, just like how Manchester City can come back from trailing 2-1 to QPR, putting 2 goals behind a 5 minute stoppage time to change the whole chapter. Well, global market will not be spared for this kind of miracle as well.

Doing trading now is a rather dangerous thing to play with, as stock can suddenly gap lower the next day, or plunge day by day, eating your flesh and cracking your bones. However, with adequate planning and using proper hedging position with FKLI short contracts, it could still be a good trade after all.

Do remember, volatile season is the time where you can make money in a way faster mode, but also for the same as losing faster as well. You might see JCY and DRB flying up high, and next moment, plunging down sharp the next coming day. It depends on which train are you taking, and it requires a lot of courage to enter position when everything seems to be impossible.

If you do not have FKLI to hedge against your trade, I would suggest you not to enter into equities. For those with FKLI, covering it with a adequate short position will be rather nice, and try some trades with great swing on equities to capture the differences.

Of course, as market had been in a plunging mode, the pennies and Ace market stock will be getting ready soon to conquer the market, usually after a few days plunge on the KLCI, then will the penny come into action.

For risk trader, probably a few selection here that I can recommend to look into it for some action packed drama.

1.) LFECorp - There are some initial signs on 11th May with a volume of 20 million transaction, which hit right up to RM 0.155. Should it be drugged heavily, I am not erasing the chances of seeing it hitting 20 cents.

2.) Euro - After a T-4 session for 9th May transaction, a hammer sign will not be bad after all. Let's see how far Euro can charge in the coming days. RM 0.35 could be the primary testing zone.

3.) DBE - This counter had been rather fishy, and obvious on it's collection after seeing it's queue and huge amount of queue under. With 673million of shares, it could be another Raymond Chan's target after all in the coming day. Who knows?

4.) UMLand - The rare case for Properties counter to be rising up in a good manner. There should be a good 5 cents dividend that would be announced soon.

5.) Nicorp/Aglobal/Mtronic/Harvest - They just like to do silly stunts. Always worth to be monitored during lousy sentiments, well, at least for my instinct.

Cheers and have a nice day.

Monday, 14 May 2012

Coastal - On a Golden Coast

Coastal had been laying in a rather quiet manner for the past month of April, but things are not going to be the same again ever since the sparks of the golden coast had been initiated on the starting month of May 2012.

What could be awaiting for Coastal?

Let's have some good top to toe view on Coastal. As of FYE 2011, Coastal had been great after being able to maintain an EPS of 39.51 cents despite a slump compared to the 41.55 cents for FYE 2010. However, looking on the PER of the industry, at the current price, Coastal had been rather generous to the public to be trading at a lowly 5.26 PER as of Friday price closing of RM 2.08.

Coastal Contracts Bhd had been primarily involved in Ship Building, Shipping and Ship Repair/Maintenance. With the recent slump in the shipping industry, Coastal had been in a rather better shape compared to other industry player which had been seeing share prices plunging lower and lower. I believe there could be something good in the management side of Coastal Contract that had been playing a strong and important part in steering Coastal amidst the uncertainty and rough sea waters.

I believe Coastal will be the upcoming interesting superstar as it had a very interesting PER at the current price, while the upcoming performance from the company could be an interesting as report cards are fielding in soon in the month of May. While the political outlook had been rather uncertain, I believe that most of the report card could be bombarding the market soon for a reason to offload.

Looking at Coastal at a technical view of it, it could be rather even more interesting. Let's have a quick view on it.

The chart is very interesting, and it could be the repeat of what had happened in the past 3 months. Coastal had been taking a pitch, and sidelining for 5 days before a huge surge came up on the 6th day, which is what had happened 3 months ago. If Coastal will to repeat this feat altogether, we will be seeing an easy target of RM 2.30 to RM 2.40 zone in a the coming days, while breaking that will be looking a good revisiting of RM 2.70 in the coming days as well.

Bone's Opinion.
I believe that Coastal will be a good choice to be picked at, looking at the rather interesting and attractive PER that it had been trading now, upcoming report card and the formation of the chart patterns, Coastal should be poise for a good surge in the coming days. On a strong technical outlook, should the shares got consolidated, we will be seeing a better price in a day or two soon.


Bone's TP: RM 2.25

Cheers and have a nice day


Tuesday, 8 May 2012

KLSE Stock Watch for 9 May 2012

As the market had been braced for a rather hard crash in the coming days, there are still some irrational stocks that would just like to go against the majority of the market. Looking at how DJIA had been crashing below the 13000 barrier will be taking the public confidence into another level lower now as the problem in Europe had been brought up for some good Bear game now.

Do prepare yourself to cover some position with FKLI shorting now as a good coverage to hedge against any unforeseen circumstances.

Let's look at what kind of stock that might be of good to be played tomorrow.

1.) Nicorp - This had been one heck of a stock that likes to go against the wave, along side with his brothers and siblings such as Aglobal, Metronic and of course, Harvest. While Harvest had display a rather stunning performance after 4pm, this will likely be showing how Raymond Chan related counter will be going to be like in the coming red days.

2.) Aglobal/Mtronic - A good stack of counter to be monitored together with Nicorp. As of experience, the best moment to play with speculative stocks are these 3 wonder sets of brothers. As public will not be touching other stock, shifting the focus towards the 3 brothers are seemingly easy now. If you cannot stand the temptation, be smart in your movements.

3.) BIMB - It had been a heck of a trade in BIMB as the EPF are still interfering with it. However, is the job done? As of Takaful flying to RM4 spot, what about BIMB, who is majority shareholder in Takaful. Laying cool at the range of RM 2.68 to RM 2.70, today BIMB had tried to break off from this zone, but had cushioned lower to settle at RM 2.69. Will tomorrow be another testing despite the expected reddish performing market later? Well, I am maintaining my outlook in BIMB on reaching RM 2.80. Let's see.

4.) Puncak - One of my favorite stock as it got a good swing which is rather nice and easy to be predicted. Looking at how Puncak had been performing, I maintain my outlook in Puncak at reaching RM 1.50 in the coming days. In fact, stock that is with goodies behind tends to rally on reverse market condition. We will see how Puncak will be performing tomorrow.

5.) Scomnet - A gold bag for some, but a scum bag for many. Looking at the anticipated plunge in the market, scums like to do stunts that are just ridiculous. I am looking forward for Scomnet as it had been in my category of problematic counter, same like Nicorp, Harvest, Aglobal and Metronic.

Cheers and have a good day trading.


KLSE Stock Watch for 8 May 2012

It had been a harsh journey at the KLSE lately, with uncertainty lurking around, with European crisis being highlighted in a rather huge and worsening matter now, the global market sentiment is just ain't looking any good at the moment. As of now, DJIA is now being challenge on the 13000 psychological mark again, which I think will be quite decisive on whether the Bull will resist it, or the Bear break free for a game.

As the whole world had been watching, it is a good time to get your FKLI account ready now for some shorting to cover and hedge against your equity, especially those who had vested on KLCI chips.

However, with such market condition, there are still some ignorant stock that could just go against the market with their irregular movement, such as Permaju and Sanbumi to say. What could be so interesting in them remains a question mark to the public, except for the insider of the 2 companies who is behind the whole thing.

Of course, I would believe that there could be something that of good to be watched around for some good swings tomorrow.

Following stock might be worth to be monitor out for some irregular movements will include:

1.) Permaju - Had been rallying hard against the market trend since it's break free from 30 cents range, and till date had been seeing return of more than 100% within 1 month. With a good volume and good price hike, Permaju could be up for a privatization as more stakes had been acquired by shareholders in the previous round. Permaju could be looking forward to charging 80 cents.

2.) Sanbumi - Strong buying strength in the end of the day might be disclosing what could be off happening tomorrow. Had been in a streak of money losing reports from a NTA of 75 cents down to the 69 cents as of FYE 2011. What could be of Sanbumi in the coming day, looking at how things had been attacked today. I think Sanbumi could get back to a possible RM 0.37 as of 9 February 2012.

3.) HSI-H3 - Best time to put your legs into the Put warrant for the Hang Seng Index. Looking at how volatile the HSI can be, HSI-H3 will be a good tool for you to play with the opportunity created from the global market scared off. If you are looking at HSI plunging another 1000 points, HSI-H3 is your mark men now, with a possibly hit of reaching RM 0.50 in the coming days.

4.) ILB - Another counter that had been against market. With a buying rate at 75% supported by good volume, after a series of 3 days hike, what could be of the 4th day?

5.) Jaks - Rising up in the last few minutes after a good long consolidation. It could be a good time to be looked. After all, I do believe the water game is not finish at least for the KLSE at the moment.

Cheers and have a nice day monitoring.

Friday, 4 May 2012

Puncak - Don't click on me

Understand that it had been a rather interesting journey with Puncak. Yes, in fact I had been covering a lot on Puncak since the craziness broke out, because I would continue to believe that the game in Puncak is not just this, there should be more in Puncak, looking at the way how the controlling party had been playing with Puncak had just make things sweeter.

You might be wondering, what is so great in Puncak. As the rumors of privatization exercise had been circulating around in the market, there are also news about Puncak is into Oil and Gas industry as well, seeing that how it had spent a capital expenditure of RM 500million into this sector had made the story into a better counter to be monitored for more hot and spicy news.

Well, when the news are playing their part, we had to see how the share prices along with their volume had been playing their part as well. Let's have a good look on Puncak.

In my opinion, this could be a long big three month price and volume consolidation for the company. As usual, controlling syndicate would always like to test holder for a period of 3 months, not too long for them to wait for better goodies, but long enough for the retailer to be kept in the dark wondering what is wrong with the counter with such low volume and plunging prices.

Recent few day had seen how Puncak had been resurrected from a long slumber, with volume coming back into play now.

Bone's Opinion.
I think after this 3 month price consolidation, Puncak will be ready and ripe enough to take a good hike up again, as this time onward, we might be seeing how Puncak will be possibly breaking up the last limit up price, RM 1.88, in this upcoming rally as we see how the controlling party will be playing away with the stories again.

Bone's 1st TP: RM 1.50
Bone's 2nd TP: RM 1.60

Cheers and have a good day.

Wednesday, 2 May 2012

BIMB - Geared up

It had been sometime since I last look into stock as it had been a great time to take a break at times to recharge and go further in the coming days. Well, things still continue to move on and the market continue to go by itself no matter you are in or out, but the main concern will always be, are you in at the right time? When is the right time?

As much as the things that had been happening, well BIMB did get to caught my eyes, as I had been lurking into this stock for sometime around. As a matter of fact, BIMB had been seeing as laggard as to compared to it's sidekick - Takaful, which had took less than 2 month to see a more than 100% gain, shooting up from RM 2 to more than RM4, and even landing at RM 4.25 today at 12.30pm closing.

What about BIMB? Well, I had to say finally BIMB is taking things seriously now, as it had started to march along after engaging a rather slow 2nd or 3rd gear for the past 3 to 4 months.

Let's have a look on the chart of BIMB.
For the past 4 month to say, BIMB had been hiking in a rather consistent manner, or constant note. However, things had taken a big change when BIMB had finally decided to shift it's gear for a higher and faster paced run. As per the running today, BIMB had touched a peak of RM 2.67, signalling for a better pursuit in the coming days. As of the last consolidation seen, I believe BIMB will be ready for some serious matter after all.

Short term outlook, I think there shouldn't be any problem for BIMB bombing itself to RM 2.80, and then a possible RM 3.00 in the coming days.

As of the current layout, don't forget BIMB-CB, BIMB-CC which are traded in a rather delicious manner.

Cheers and have a good day.

Bone's short term TP: RM 2.80