Monday, 30 January 2012

KLSE - Part 1 : Understanding the market from Bonescythe

Trading, would it be just that simple of just buying and selling, making some profits, and repeating the whole cycle all again? What about if the whole thing that you are doing is not making profits, but losing out?

In fact, this had puzzled a lot of my friends on my stock picks and recommendation, in which quite a lot of them, netizens as to say, had flooding me with questions over questions on stock picks, with the most popular as being the following:-

1.) Which is the next pick?
2.) How do you identify such stock?
3.) What are the insider news going on?
4.) How do you determine the exit point?
5.) Any technical charters that you are using for your analysis?
6.) How do you analyze?

Well, first of all, I would like to inform that I am not "God" of shares, nor is anyway near "Saint" as well. I am still another human born by a normal mother, which makes me no different with you and me. But following up, I might share a little on my different approaches in share market, particularly in the KLSE.

Before I start, I would like to share a little bit of my own bio. I am from science background, but a business graduated. Creative, analytical and like to do my own creative manner of research, using my own methodology, as long as it works, who cares? Even at work, I believe most of your bosses would just like to see the end result that works along the way. I did not attend any courses before about market, but I learn them all through internet, and my own style of researching an understanding of the market. As a matter of fact, I did not in anyhow pay a single cents to attend trading courses, trading classes, or whatever good and flowery name that people can name it for their business purposes.

To me, it is a real joke to see people paying from a few hundreds to a few thousands, some even reaching tens of thousands for a course or study that will not even guarantee you of anything in the end of it - Even though the course looks promising that you will end up with thousand or millions richer. Those who are in it will understand what I am talking about, while those who are not in it, probably you might want to try and know what I am talking about. A lot of them, after paying thousands, end up losing another few more thousand in the market, but disappeared quietly after that, probably they might start to think that they are still not good enough, or did not learn enough from the "master".

For people's sake, all that you would want to learn about can be obtained here, for free - Babypips.
Probably, if you would want to earn from stock market, you can print out the whole of Babypips, convert them into your own format, and start conducting classes that charges hundreds or thousands, teach in Facebook platform or whatever platform that can be used, maybe that might sound more profitable, less risk after all. Don't you agree with me? That is why I don't pay a cent to take trading classes. Remember nobody cares about your money more than you do. Classes doesn't care for your money, because they care for their own profit more than your money. Now, how many earn big money from classes - except the one that collect tuition fees?

Throughout my whole journey, I would like to voice it out that in my opinion, the first major error that most of the trader did wrong is that they don't know where they stand. They do not really understand what market are they trading, although they know it is called "KLSE". So what is KLSE about? A quick glimpse on KLSE as of 2009 shown that the total market capitalization for the KLSE is standing at USD 299 billion. KLSE is a rather very tiny and small market if compared to bigger guns like DJIA, S&P500, in which a few big companies there are able to represent the whole of KLSE. Now, do you think KLSE is a very big market after all?

While some classes stresses on technical indicators, in my opinion, KLSE is just a placed for technical indicators to go flaw because of it's following major reason:-
1.) Corrupted
2.) Illiquid
3.) Dirty
4.) Unknowledgeable
5.) Low population

1.) Corrupted
I think I do not need to elaborate much on this, as I think Malaysia already can have a good standing around the world in corruption standings. Yes, it might be overbought, but you will just continue to see it going to the sky - Without any solid news. Technical indicators will never ever work well when corrupted factor goes into the market.

2.) Illiquid
Most of the KLSE counters are illiquid. There are a few exceptions on some big heavyweights, however, using 1 to 2 millions is able to influence yet another small to mid size wave to come into the play. Illiquid situation doesn't move well with technical indicators.

3.) Dirty
Stock market is dirty. There is no clean market in the world, but only how dirty can the market be. US market got its down dirtiness, while KLSE got its own dirty to play with. A combination of foul play like lefts and rights to own pocket is one of the most common thing to do, while there are a lot more of other dirty tactics as well. Dirty play doesn't compliment technical signals.

4.) Unknowledgeable
How many of the trader that trades the KLSE is knowledgeable and good in sense of fundamental analysis and technical analysis. In fact, throw a stone in the midst of traders or investor, probably you 1 out of 10 is knowledgeable about fundamental and technical analysis. Why technical works in US market and not KLSE? A good example - 8 out of 10 person in US are good in technical, and once technical indicator flashes buy/sell, 8 out of 10 are doing the same action. Take it to KLSE scenario, 1 out of 10 is following technical signal, what about the other 9? Undecided to left or right. Hence, technical doesn't work well in a midst of unknowledgeable traders, as they tends to spoil the market.

5.) Low population
Lastly, Malaysia is a nation with 28.767 million people. Throw a stone out in the midst of 100 people, sadly to tell that probably the one that got hit doesn't even know how the share market works at all. It is a sad ratio to see that retailers are just a mere 1% or lesser from the whole population of the Malaysia. Already lack of knowledge, add on the lack of participation, technical just doesn't goes well with KLSE.


Well, I am not here totally in condemning "technical analysis" in KLSE market. I had to agree that in some extend and scenarios, it might works at times, but a lot of time, not really reliable. If any of you who would like to get a good feel of trading via technical indicators, I might suggest the US market, which will be a good place for your technical to show its power. Technical analysis is a kind of study that will work great during certain condition, in which the most important is where the majority of the traders that are behind that counter believe, and take into practice, the same technical analysis that had been taught. Well equipped US Traders with good technical analysis will be a good ground for good technical person to play the game, whereas, I don't think there are a lot of good technical traders in the KLSE market, hence spoiling the whole game. You think a Datuk in Malaysia will go for technical analysis and charting when he knew his company is awarded with contracts? Hahaha... Think again.

What about fundamental analysis? Riding on undervalued company that had yet to be discovered? If you are to trade for a living, probably you would need more than 1 million in cash to make this happen, as good fundamental companies in the KLSE takes a way too long to feed your mouth alone, not to say your family. Well, some of the very good fundamental company just doesn't goes well with you (Making huge profit, but no dividends, and share price not hiking, staying low and stagnant). You will find yourself stuck in a long long game with the directors. But the directors have remuneration from company to continue to make ends meet, do you have? What about those who got just 50k to 100k to do it? Charge them all up in BAT, Nestle, Dlady, TWS, and wait for the dividend to feed their mouth? I don't think there are a lot of people who had Warren Buffet wealth to play such a long game.

Probably by now, you might be wondering, what should I be using then?

Well, next up, I will be sharing on my different approaches in my analysis that might helps you in your trading game.

Saturday, 28 January 2012

Weekend Special - Winsun : A cold front

As promised earlier in my post that we will be taking a look at Winsun, so let's take this weekend and pour in some insights on Winsun, as we look at what are the upcoming outlook for this particular stock, and the future prospectus on its pricing.

Let's take a look at some historical happenings before we go into some good analysis, in which I would want to bring to you a once upon a time zero to hero - GPRO.

How did GPRO fared during its glorious period might be a reflection on what could be happening in Winsun soon.

A quick outlook on GPRO, and its characteristic of GPRO as shown below. With a total shares issued of 250million, ACE market and Technology market.

Gpro had been laying low, lingering with most of the time at 5 to 7 cents zone, while the epic hike came right on September 2011, which had saw GPRO rising without reading the global market trends influences, hiking right up to 25 cents as shown as the chart below. What we can read is that the volume had significantly increased and able to keep up at 20 millions to 30 millions shares done almost at each trading day.

While this is the past, but Winsun might be just another remake of GPRO. Why do I say so? Let's take a look on Winsun on some of the very particular similarities.

1. Ace market
2. Technology sector
3. Shares issued - 300 million (50 million more compared to GPRO)
4. Money losing company
5. Laying 4-7 cents for most of the time
6. Hiking at consistent rate
7. Similar amount of volume traded compared to GPRO

The party had just started. While we will be looking more into how Winsun will penetrate into higher grounds soon. I believe that this party will be at least going on for another 1 to 2 weeks, as we will more lightly to see how Winsun test 20 cents, and not erasing the chances of how Winsun can test 25 cents as well.

On a short note, we will be looking at Winsun lingering in 13 cents to 15 cents soon. So, the question is, are you in or out?

Cheers and have a nice day

**Note - Don't be a game spoiler, play with the historical trend. Trying to achieve everything in 1 to 2 days will be disastrous.

Friday, 27 January 2012

Weekend chill out - Have a good week

Looking for some inspiration? Some new ideas? How to make your home looks nicer? Or how to design your own new house?

Well, here are a few selected ideas from me that might be able to give you a click to what you might be looking for long. Who knows?

Let's look at what I have for you.

Need some colorful stairs to brighten up your office or house? What do you think of this?

Bored of the usual roundish wine glass - Here is something for a different taste

What a good place for a runaway from hectic schedules

Probably you can install this at your shower room - Triple the fun from top to bottom

You think your butt can crack this chair? Try it to know.

 What a lovely cove to be in everyday.

And lastly, for bachelors - Please buy this bed sheet to ease your loneliness at night.

Cheers and have a nice day as Bonescythe Research House will be back next week with more action packed researches and analysis to come.
Drop a reply here if you are thirsty to be a millionaire.

Cheers and have a good weekend!!

Thursday, 26 January 2012

Rsawit - Positioned for a coming good run

Rsawit had been in a good position at the current moment to test higher limits after a series of consolidation that had brought the share into higher grounds lately. As today had successfully conquer RM1.00, the psychological barrier, Rsawit had ended is life as a penny stock today, and put in the foot hold at RM 1.01 as the ending note today.

In a quick outlook for Rsawit, let's see what can we look from here.

Now let's take a look at the CPO price.

We can see that the prices of the CPO had been coming back from a lowly RM2770 to above RM3k per ton. As of midday, CPO index is lingering at RM3142, and we could be able to portray a higher ground for CPO to grow as the trend had been in a hiking mode. I will not erase out the possibilities of CPO hitting RM3300 in the coming couple of weeks as back then in January 2011, the CPO had been in a high of RM3900 range.

With this, I can take into assumption that the recent rebound from the CPO will continue to trigger massive buys into plantation that are good and undervalued, which is why Rsawit can poise for a higher ground in the coming days to come.

We will be seeing a short test of RM1.05 tomorrow, while looking forward to see how Rsawit can hit RM 1.10 in no time to come.


JCY + Unisem - A striking set of tech stocks yet again

The latest technology stock that had been catching attention should not left out with JCY + Unisem in the whole picture.

These 2 stocks had been in a high flying mode in the recent days, especially with JCY that had been in a mad surge after the massive effect from the Thailand flooding. While Unisem had been lurking into the picture in a rather slower mode, however, it could be a great chance for those who had missed out on JCY as we will look into Unisem in the later part.

Undoubtedly, the JCY saga and the tagging along of big guns like Unisem and MPI had also been able to spin some of the other tech stock into moving, with GTronics on the move, ENG stealing some damaged show, Dataprep divorcing Emico and heading higher in a slow run.

There are also stock like K1, CBSA, Cuscapi, Notion, SMRTech who are on the movers list as well. Beside this, let me bring to you a few stock that had the Gpro/Flonic moving trend, which is Cybert (Already in its peak), and fresh mover Winsun, which had been just taking off without UMA at the moment.

Let's have a quick look on JCY and Unisem here, while we will look where will they be heading to in a market like this.
JCY had been hiking for the past 3 month, while it had taken around 1 month for consolidation, marked with the 2 vertical lines, lined with the volume for easy reference. The stock had bee able to hold off at RM 1.10 to RM 1.20 range in a nice manner, while it had given a strong signal on pursuing higher after it had hit higher grounds today, with a RM1.28 as of 10.40am today (26 Jan'12).
As marked with the green arrow, we might be able to see JCY back into some hot action soon as it might poise for a test in the RM 1.30 in time to come, while looking further into RM 1.35 as well.


Unisem, a rather not so saturated as to say, had been catching up with the tech market movement, especially on the hot movement on JCY. From a lowly of RM1.00, Unisem had been catching up with strong bullish movement, hiking at a speed of 45 degree in the past few days, and breaking up further with a bullish push right up to RM 1.60 as of today.

A quick look had been Unisem being consolidated 2 times in the past, while there are still no strong signal on where will be the 3rd consolidation be. Should the tech stock are still in a strong play, we might be looking at RM 1.60 to RM 1.65 for the 3rd consolidation to happen, but probably not before Unisem had try on RM 1.70 first by looking at how it had been in a surging up mode.

In a short not as a conclusion, should the general market been able to maintain at this level without any panic sell offs, and tech stock are still in the play, we might be looking at RM 1.35 for JCY and 1.65 for Unisem in a short note.

Next up, we will be looking into more tech stock like Winsun.

Cheers and have a good day.

Maybulk - Something huge happening?

It had been sometime again since I last look into some stock again as I had a busy week and schedule to cope with.

As the topic sounded, Maybulk - Something huge happening? Yes, we are looking at Maybulk, the share that had risen from RM1.40 to RM2.40 in just a period of 1 month, with strong trends being identified with good supports to justify on a solid new behind.

On a quick outlook, what could we see on Maybulk. Let's have a look on the Maybulk historical trading chart.
The share price had been rising steadily despite the much doubtful market of the KLSE. It is noticeable that those low are accommodated with low volume (Shown in the down arrow), while huge spikes comes with strong solid volume. What can be happening behind Maybulk? There are more than just accumulation here, and can we be possibly looking into events like privatization of Maybulk?

On the learning side of it, this are some of the very strong signal that we can use to enhance our trading experience. Though I must admit that I am a little bit late into looking at this because of my tight schedule, but I believe that it will not be too late too as the trend had been in a strong hike signal, with a good indicator on how to play with the share as well.

So all in all, I think Maybulk will still have some good rooms for hike, and could probably looking at RM 2.60 in time to come.

Cheers and have a good day.

Sunday, 22 January 2012

Happy Chinese New Year - May you be healthy and happy

Wishing each and everyone a Happy Chinese New Year, and happy holidays.

May you and your family be healthy, happy, joyful and prosperous in the Year of Dragon.

Here are some short clips for you to enjoy.

Cheers and we shall be back into action on Wednesday.

Friday, 20 January 2012

Muda - A stage by stage performance

Muda had been in the limelight of a rumored takeover previously. But had this news and rumored just resembled some rumors that we heard normally?

Give an example like Proton, where it had been rumored for a take over exercise, from Proton Management, DRB, UMW, and even General Motors. However, after a series of balls rolling on the left and right, DRB had appear as the entity to take over Khazanah stakes and to restructure the group.

Recently, market had been in a hot mode for take over. I am starting to wonder can this action that had been happening quite often indicates that our Malaysian listed vehicle is just too undervalued? Or Malaysia is a country that is full of potential, and the coming growth for the next couple of years can be booming, good enough to see the privatization bear fruits? There are quite a number of good companies that had been brought over by foreign entities, while our local heavyweight are not losing out either.

Let's have a quick outlook on Muda
Yesterday had seen Muda rebounding and close back on a good shape hammer, supported with the today popping up above RM 1.00, should this level be able to hold, we might be looking at RM 1.10 in the coming days soon.

Bone's TP : RM 1.10 for a short term trading period.

Cheers and happy trading

Thursday, 19 January 2012

Unisem - Another JCY in the making?

Here is my first post after a long break. Would like to look into Unisem, a counter good enough to be highly correlated with the Hard Disk theme.

Unisem had been taking a plunge from RM2.xx last year until now. It had laid low till around RM1.00 until things started to get into a reversal. Can we see Unisem as strong as JCY reversal?

In a quick outlook, what can we see about in Unisem.

Unisem had taken a flight up, and since then had been consolidating on the volume as seen in the triangle. As the consolidating of volume takes place, Unisem had been able to remain in a mark which is a stage higher, while after consolidation, there are fresh upwards trend sighted.

To support this, let's have a look on the Unisem Warrant movement.
As of history, the warrant are not traded so heavily, not until on the 6th of Jan 2012 which had saw the warrant, at a more than 100%, been traded near to 50million of warrants done.

Can Unisem be another big hit soon after JCY miraculous hike from a lowly 40 cents back to a big package surprise standing at RM1.1x to 1.2x?

In my opinion, Unisem can be a good trading option to be considered as I think Unisem might be able to continue this until seeing RM 1.50 as a possibilities.

TP: RM 1.35

Cheers and happy trading

Tuesday, 17 January 2012

Bonescythe Stock Watch - Be back soon

Hi all,

Bonescythe Stock Watch had took a break for the past few days.

We will be back soon again.

Do check out on us.

Cheers and have a great day.


Wednesday, 11 January 2012

Stock Watch for 12 January 2012

Some had been asking, "Do you know where are we heading now?", "Market outlook at the current moment?", while some are already been actively trading in the market, while there are still some of the minority which I personally knew that are still staying sideline, and waiting in a very patience manner to enter the market after the Europe crashes. To those who are still at sidelines, I just want to say congratulation, you will be successful because of your firm stand on your decision in taking things that you can only take - with no regrets. However, for punters, kudos and good job on good punts, while try again for bad punts. Investor, materializing their value during the short term value hunt on the past 3 months when market had plunged.

So, where are we now in the market? Are we going to see clear direction? Let's have a quick look to justify the market using the KLCI.
In a short, we are seeing that it had been a rebound from October 2011 until now, in which the index can be seen consolidating at a higher level. There are 2 things about consolidation, in which it resemble a level of saturation after some time of mixture, where after the saturation, there will be something else happening to take place. Do you see a glass with some water in it a "Half Full Glass", or "Half Empty Glass" ? KLCI, consolidated and can start to plunge? Or consolidated, and can start another new flight? While we can still buy some time on whether it will fly or plunge, at least we can have a peace of mind that the KLCI will still be able to linger around that zone, at least until a couple of days before the CNY strike into pictures.

On a quick note, let's see what can we observe for tomorrow.

1.) Harvest - After a 2 days of uncertain swing trade, can Harvest unleashed its Season 2 tomorrow? Let's see. TP RM 1.65.

2.) Glomac - With more and more company shares buy back, a standing NTA at above RM1.00, a 7.13 EPS for 1st Half of FYE 2012 (Compared to 5.38 cents in 1st Half of FYE 2011),  no spikes at all in 2012, today trading activity could be just what everybody is waiting for.
Bone's TP : RM 0.865

3.) Versatile - This must be a heck of a stock that had been in a rise without any thing solid behind. What could be for Versatile after breaking the 50 cents barrier. Another Harvest in the making? Hope not too overly done. Continue the crazy hike, don't be surprise to see something like SYF (Since Versatile and SYF started fairly at the same time).
TP: RM 0.555

4.) KHSB - Had been in a very heavy spike lately after the news came out in the media and public about the possibilities of the privatization of KHSB to enhance the value of the shareholder and the restructuring the investment portfolio. The share had been traded till up to 100million shares done on Monday, while Tuesday and Wednesday had seen the volume subsided by 2/3. As the NTA is standing at 79 cents, can this be another phenomenon in the market in days to come, like how Proton did?
KHSB will be worth a monitoring process as we expect some action to come soon.

5.) Rubber counter - Supermaxx, Hartalega, Latexx, IRCB, Kossan, Careplus, Ruberex, TopGlove. Once bird flu got amplified in the media, who knows what will happen next? IRCB hit RM 1.90? Hahaha.. Supermax RM 7? God knows.

Cheers and Happy Trading.

Harvest - It is just this?

Some of you guys might be wondering whether I will write something about Harvest after it's release from the designation status from Bursa. Well, as the past couple of days had been busy, I had not written anything on this hot stock which had haunt quite a number of people on the special surprise package.

On a quick reflection on Harvest, the uplifting of the designation status on Monday had seen the stock hitting the ceiling yet again, which also resemble the first ceiling hitting for the year 2012. That very much reflects to a person who is sitting inside a jail for so long a period, and after his release, he is just too too happy and needed to make a very loud bang. Doesn't this brings back a little about "Prison Break" to your mind? Let some cool pictures refresh you on Prison Break.

Since Prison Break had a few of season, where the stories and dramas go on and on, don't you think that the KLSE also resemble another drama platform, just that everything is being translated into figures and numbers, volumes, chart and news, hence bringing you - Harvest Season 2.

I still remember on my post featured on the exit plan on Harvest, which could now easily see of the success in fending off all those crappy jerks from the enforcer rules and regulations. Cashing them in loads during the lows had been better than doing nothing, and letting the losses penetrate deeper. However, on a quick outlook on Harvest, if you would to ask me, is this really - Just this? I would hesitate a moment.

Let's have a quick look on the trading and movement of Harvest.
It's second and 3rd day away from jail had seen the share price lingering above RM 1.50, while there are some purchases seen from Datuk Raymond Chan on a filing to Bursa yesterday. In both occasion, there had been fierce lots being dumped just until RM 1.50, and it seems that RM 1.50 had been some sort of barrier that had been holding off in a good manner, although it might not seems to be convincing in a manner of the volume that supporting there.

As what we used to known that Harvest is indeed a "fishy" stock right from the beginning. A fish will never evolved into a prawn or crab, hence I believe that the "fishy" style is still there.

Much had been in a question mark on, why didn't Harvest goes into a 2nd limit up? Why had Harvest reacted in this manner? Why slumping? Why why why.... It is a testing of psychology. As the people who are behind Harvest knew, and as of everyone that are reading knew, the focus at Harvest is there, and everyone is eying on it for an opportunity, to strike or to blow.

In my own opinion, I would personally think that Harvest, is not finished yet. Why do I say so? In fact in looking at the trades alone, there are support at the RM 1.50 which had prevented waterfall sliding effect to go through there. There are buying activities, of which some are in good amount of numbers, while the selling can be seen as a sign of accumulating those who would want to dispose off after holding them for a long time using their cash.

Personally thinking, I think Harvest could be able to see it growing back again to RM1.6x, and not erasing RM1.7x in the coming days should the game get ignited again.

Bone's short term TP : RM 1.65

Cheers and Happy Trading.

Thinking outside the box

Recently, I had been spending some time off the market in searching for something new and afresh, hence i resort to - Thinking outside the box.

What is thinking outside the box? What can you think about? Beside shares? Stock market? KLCI? DJIA... and the list goes on and on. It had came to my attention that i got some new fresh ideas on how other people who do in thinking outside the box from an interesting blog - "Best Penny Stocks" where there are some useful articles and writings, and some mind blasting content as well. Check it out below.

Following are some pictures taken out from there which had really caught my attention - probably in helping me to design my own house in the coming days with these fresh ideas. Let's have a good look.

Inverted Design of the living room - Tantalizing

 This clock is surely a unique one

 Sleeping in a comfy nest - What do you think?

 Who will be using the ladder? This slide rocks

 This is just gorgeous design of the basin

 Pacman-ing the television

 Zeus's staff working on earth

 Your kid will surely like to read after this!

 Supercharged salt and pepper to spike up your day

 Make sure you do not rare sharks in the aquarium, or you will be the main cast in  the "Jaws" series

What do you think? Doesn't this going to help in your creativity after looking at these pictures? Let these fresh ideas help us in our daily lives and in our work situation as well. Cheers.

For those who are interested in knowing a little bit more about how the author, his brief journey and success from blogging about niche market, authoring some books and trades the US penny market, here, Timothy Sykes, for your unlimited exploration.

Of course there are still a lot of others good and handy stuffs from for your own reading on how to further enhance your blog further.

Cheers and take care.

Tuesday, 10 January 2012

Mclean - The last Mohican

Every dog will have its day, be it a luxurious dog, rich dog, smart dog, good dog, or underdog. Here, present to you the HDD related underdog, Mclean Technologies Berhad.

A quick briefing on what Mclean does in the below snapshot that can be retrieved from the company website.

MClean Services

Mclean's Vision

Yea, indeed Mclean can be considered as one of the last HDD related counter that had yet to undergo any deep frying as of yet after its issuance of IPO until now. MClean had been a forgotten counter, not until recently which I think MClean will be coming back into the focus soon as the criteria seems to be matching.

We had saw how JCY, from a RM 1.50 until a lowly 40 cents, and how an opportunity given, had gave this stock a chance to shine so brightly in the market. On the side note, related industries on the HDD, we saw Unisem not backing off too, and took the opportunity to take a flight as well after seeing the huge and powerful effect from the HDD sale prices in the market. So shouldn't we think about Mclean as well, which is also closely knitted with the HDD industry as well.

On a quick technical outlook for MClean, let see what we can derived from it.
It had been a real slump since the IPO, and on the first day itself as well. Things had been taking badly, and share price had even penetrate below 20 cents. That just bring us to how JCY did, from a RM1.5x to a lowly 30+ cents stock.

As the massive flood had given a chance for JCY to turn over strongly, this great phenomenon might be able to repeat itself on Mclean too.

At 117,400,000 shares issued, with 58.7million of warrants, and a series of slump without any heavy frying in the past 6 months, Mclean is set on its path for something great to happen.

Do you want to be a part of this? It is your choice. We might be able to see MClean firing back on some good paces like how JCY did, who knows?

Cheers and Happy trading.

Monday, 9 January 2012

HDD in the limelight

The disastrous massive flood waves in Thailand had created both sadness and happiness. How contradictory for this catastrophe to happen. On the sad note, families that had been hard hit with the waves of killer waters had been mourning for the unbearable losses of loves ones, young and old, not taking into count on the infrastructure destroyed, houses, factory, livestock, and etc. Company that had been affected are facing a tensing period to restructure the whole operation and trying to bring back the normal operation as soon as possible to reduce the losses that will surely be a great impact to them.

Thailand is one of the main hub in the manufacturing of HDD, supplying them to the major parts of the HDD eaters, like US. As of the recent hit, HDD manufacturing is just trying it's best to meet 2/3 of the demand of the world, which will definitely drive prices of HDD soaring up into the skies.

A quick report from CNET back dated to 20 November 2011, the prices of HDD had soared as high as 3 fold from the normal retail price for the Seagate Barracuda 1TB 7200RPM, from $49.99 to a stunner of $149.99, in weeks.

Guardian had been signalling that the shortage of the HDD might penetrate further into the 2012, not erasing the possibilities of it going further than 2012 as well, as the digital world continue to roll faster than what the supplies can meet. There is no doubt that things are going paperless, data centers are set up for storage and tracking purposes, what more about the current economy that is heading for another bullish run should the major influence splash in more liquidity to motivate the market to drive further.
To add on the bruise, computerworld had indicated the shutting down/partial shut down of Western Digital and Toshiba HDD factory, that had further slash shipments to 125 million from a 173 million

As of my own quick outlook, with the rising population, and with things going digitized into servers, banks setting up more DC for storage, the demand of HDD, already in a constant hike will be most likely seeing a hike with some growth in the speed, which indicates why the supplies of HDD might penetrate further than 2012.

After a series of the broad market outlook, what do we have here.
Our local company in the line ups are JCY, Unisem and ENG. (Still working on other unexplored counter).

JCY - Considered here as the most favorable counter as they are the least affected by the flood, which had enabled them to gain a steep advantage over their opponent, ENG, not a x2 or x3 advantage, but might hit up to x4 or above since ENG need to come back from the destruction, which is hampering their production. With the latest action taken by JCY to approve the 300 million capital expenditure to bulk up further, I would see it as a critical wise decision into taking advantage of the whole market, and a step to penetrate deeper in the market. Consider JCY approving 300 million capital expenditure to meet the demand, I would personally think that this might not be a 1 year affair after all.
Bone's TP: RM1.40

Unisem - Do not forget the organs of the HDD, which is why the crazy hike from Unisem lately. Unisem, manufacturer of ICs for the HDD are as important as HDD manufacturer. Although Unisem does not benefit directly from the massive flood, however, this is just a chance too good for them not to miss out the whole fun. Who doesn't like to rub salt to wound and see people cry?
Bone's TP: RM1.35

ENG - Of all 3, ENG is the underdog now, consider them coming back from the pile of mess, and licking their wounds while waiting for recovery. How fast ENG could be able to make a come back really relies on the management and their solution now. Although the HDD market is booming up with crazy prices, should ENG not able to come back in a quick manner, we will not see ENG going up, but going stagnant or southern bound because of the great opportunity losses in the limited time frame. ENG could be a dangerous bet, however, might be rewarding on the other side, should they able to come back quickly from that pile of big mess.

In short, do you want to ride on this HDD effect? It is up to your very own choices again.

Cheers and happy trading.

Sunday, 8 January 2012

BRDB - Behind a fishy play

It had came to my attention on those counter that had signals and news on some corporate exercise that had seen new height, but fallen back heavily because of the series of negative aura that had sent stock market tumbling in the past 3 months.

A spark from the downgrading of the US sovereign debt, coupled with the amplified Europe financial problem had brought the world indexes into a mess, in which when we look back into it, it resembled a real good opportunity to buy in at that point of time.

The reason that I had look upon BRDB is because of the movement of Kencana + Sapcres on it's rebound back to the level where the the offer stands. Kencana had gunned back into action from RM2.20 and currently standing at RM2.95 while Sapcres fired to RM4.58 back from a lowly RM3.30 during the dooms day.

As there are news of privatization of BRDB, or some capital repayments that would be worth RM2.50 per share, BRDB will surely be another counter to be monitored on the movement, especially when the interest is reignited into the limelight in a silent manner.

Some of the news related to BRDB on last year
1.) Getting Best price for BRDB assets
2.) Major BRDB shareholders offer to buy assets
3.) Open Tender in BRDB assets

A quick outlook for BRDB on the technical chart
While Kencana + Sapcres had been resilient, and regain composure after a the market regain control, what about BRDB, which I believe do have substantial news that would be good enough to spin it back into some good price. With a net tangible asset standing at RM3.57, and the good and prospective future of the company, BRDB will be a good watch.

Bone's short term TP: RM 2.50

Cheers and happy trading.

If you can't afford to lose, don't come to share market

I hadn't been covering on the KLSE Stock Market recently, prior to some of my own personal stuffs that I had been busy with, and needed a rest after a series of market coverage throughout the midnight, burning oil to do analysis and giving opinions as well. All in all, things had been great, with all the ups and downs, as I believe traders are so used to this kind of situation already.

As usual, there are some groups of people that would just like to criticize on whatever effort that others had chipped in, and I start to know how cheap and shallow their thinking and level of maturity is to blame on people on the decision that they had opted to made.

Share market is a place where there is win and lose. If anyone cannot afford to lose, close your trading account right away, and stay away from the share market right away. Share market is not the place for sissy and lousy to take all the blame on others but not on their own decision made for the losses incurred. Do it right away, if not, you will end up in a lousy life that likes to blame other people, and not improving your own situation by taking charge of your own decision made.

How sick it is to see people putting up fingers and pointing to other people on the mistake that they had made, or worst, teaching people what to do and so on. If someone is so smart in this, I STRONGLY ADVISE that person to open a RESEARCH CENTER so that no one in the share market will incurred losses anymore. Don't brag without doing anything, making yourself a NATO (No Action, Talk Only), or trying to frame people of syndication or whatever crap that they can think of. If you are so smart, go do your own freaking good analysis then and save the whole world, and be a hero!

All I got to say is that this is my own personal blog, and all my research and opinions are authentic from my own, while I am sharing from my own experience through different kind of analysis and assumption. I am not god of stock or saint here. There is no forcing on individuals to buy, but that decision made is from your own. Hence, be responsible for your own action, and remember to read my disclaimer as well before putting up an ass talk of craps. Don't come out with craps that blogger or whatever should be responsible for their analysis. How often do you see research analysis from major research house go busted? So they are responsible? Crap I guess! Be responsible for your own action as you are dealing with your own money!

I want to conclude again, If you cannot afford to lose, don't come to the share market.

Cheers to winner, adios to whiner.

Thursday, 5 January 2012

Taking a day off - Happy Tossing

Taking a break on the market analyzing.

Back in action on tomorrow trading hour. You can catch me at my lurking area.

Have fun and play safe.

Bonescythe Research House :)

Wednesday, 4 January 2012

Stock Watch for 4th January 2012

Today KLCI had blasted off with a reddish moment, with the index surfing to the day low of 1512.16 during the mid day of the trading hours. A closing at 1513.54 in the end doesn't mean that the game is all over though. However, we should continue to monitor on the outlook of the broad market sentiments.

With the latest pledge from German chancellor Merkel to do everything in pulling out the Europe in a deep mess, while French President Sarkozy in a full supportive mode in doing the best to prevent Europe in getting into a deep mess, they do know that it will be just too big a mess in letting Europe falling into the ravine.

On the other side of the continent, with the US doing in a fairly good manner, we could be anticipating a good ride on the market for the next couples of day at least.

In short, today the KLSE is slightly disappointing as it had spoil at least 50% of the mood the traders when the index decided to open in a reddish moment, and inching lower. While there are some stocks are bullish, there are still laggards and indecisive movement in some of the counter in the market as well. However, I believe that should the DJIA is doing great today, we shall be able to get a party in the market tomorrow.

Here are some of the interesting findings for tomorrow pick

1.) JCY - As mentioned in the earlier post here, JCY will be an interesting stock to watch out for. Hope that the fuel in the engine is still enough to let it run further. TP - RM 1.22.

2.) Sanichi - An interesting stock to look out for more action. There are much swinging here, and today had seen a invisible strong support at RM 0.16 when it fell during the last 1 hours of trading.
Strong supports are formed and pushing back to the RM 0.165 spot could interpret into some new game soon. A quick technical outlook on Sanichi might be interesting here.

The 2 green lines are the time frame where we might see further consolidation, or a good break out to come soon. With the strong support sighted in RM 0.16, the tendency for a break out could be high here as we might be looking at RM 0.20 again.

3.) Proton - This had been an epic share since the announcement of the merger/take over spring into the play of the whole drama. Of course, many of us do not know whether the whole drama is a truly real, or just a show too for some fast money making process. However, seeing the movement and support, it could be real though as the share price had inched up slowly and consolidating at a higher price, while testing newer height day by day.
On a quick outlook from the chart, volume is consolidating, with lower volume traded in the coming day, but the surprising fact we can see is that the Price is consolidating at a higher mark. Because of this, Proton outlook is still a bright prospect for more stuff to come later. We might be going to see new show with entrance ticket no more at RM4.90 area, but upgraded to RM5.00+ in the coming days.

Hence, prepare for a strings of wide swing again like the good old days. We might be looking at anything pass RM5.00 in the coming days.
Bone's short term TP - RM 5.15.

4.) Tcubes - This had been a heck of a counter that can just burst into stars in seconds. What could be the game plan behind Tcubes. As we can seen, it is very obvious that this counter will be a big potential next big hit, based on a few significant signals that had been sighted in the market.

- The extension of the submission of the regularization plan indicated the game plan of putting away the GN7 status in the later days to come. Bursa hadn't been so graceful to others, but why Tcubes?
- Injection and awarding of contracts, from Government.
- Government related.

Based on this few strong criteria, don't be surprise of some Harvesting effect in a slow manner, who knows? As another new contract got into their hand, we will see how Tcubes will continue to play the game again. TP : RM 0.20.

Cheers and Happy Trading.

JCY - The 5th Gear process

JCY - This had been a wonderful stock for the last quarter of 2011, and beginning of the year 2012. Indeed marvelous enough to keep it and looking it growing into madness. As JCY had continue to defy gravity after countless of time, it had again reached a point of euphoria where the buying just could only keep on coming and coming. As I look further, I realized why racer released the N2O in the end of the game (Saving the best for the end).
On a quick outlook in the JCY activity, there are indeed some fast pace gear shifting process. 1st, 2nd and 3rd gear (Looking at the volume in triangle outline) is comparable fast. However, there is a trend where each shifting upwards will see the volume dragging for a longer period of time before another shift. Doesn't this sound like driving a car? Look on to the 4th gear and 5th gear, which will be interesting. At the 4th gear stage, a consolidation of the prices is just liken to a race car gaining on more torque (RPM) before supercharging into the 5th gear with a blast, which we are seeing it now.

At the 5th gear stage, the hiking had changed drastically, and soared with a much more steeper rate compared to the previous stage. In my opinion, 5th gear will linger for a period of time(Looking at the last triangle), and I anticipate this euphoria to continue until somewhere in the middle of January.

Should the hike continue at this speed, we could be just seeing RM1.30 to RM 1.50 in no time.

Bone's short term TP - RM 1.22.

Cheers and Happy Trading

Tuesday, 3 January 2012

New Year Stock Watch - 3 January 2012

It is a whole new year, and as we welcome the Year of the Dragon, the first day will be an absolute fun and exciting day to began with for all the traders here. Make sure that you are in front and ready in your Lappy or PC on the first moment of the 9am. Seriously, I hope that the Bursa server is healthy and good enough in taking this kind of volume as a new year start afresh!

Well, in my hands are some hot picked list, that when I had take a look on them, I am feeling like I can taste the taste of tomorrow already. It is hot, it is exciting, drooling, captivating, tentalizing, crazy...
Whatever the word is to describe about tomorrow, I will just sum it up that tomorrow will definitely be a good day!

Seriously speaking, there are just tons of good stuffs out there tomorrow, I even had a hard time picking up some of them, but the following are the few of them that had somehow captured my attention, which is based on the past historical movement, or supported by current charting, while some are still moving in a great momentum.

Category 1 - Past Historical Hike in New Year
1.) Mulpha - This stock is one heck of a stock that will be having great anticipation on the New Year Effect. The signal is strong enough on the previous 2 trading days that had seen the activity surge drastically, good and healthy enough to see a great accumulation happening, and waiting to welcome the Dragon with a good bang. Don't be surprise to soar up to RM 0.45.

2.) Rsawit - Considerably a good, cheap plantation counter, supported with recent heavy activity, and with the previous historical price movement, coupled in with the already spiking up of the CPO in the world market, how can you deny Rsawit from having a great outlook in the first day of 2012? We could be seeing another test of RM1.00 should things goes well.

3.) Bursa - Finally, the time had cometh for this seasonal financial stock to go back into the limelight. Bursa seasons are January and half yearly reports, especially the 2nd Quarter that comes with dividend. Last Year 2011, Bursa went rampage, and did some Harvest style for half month of January 2011. This year - What do you think? After a series of non action, and with MOF as majority shareholder, I just cannot leave this out from my screen. By the way, there are 4 cute warrants.

4.) Coastal - Finally some OnG related entries here. Had been laying low without much significant movement in the market, however I believe that Coastal will be much in influence towards the New Year Effect.

5.) Perdana - Had been in an up beating mode even before entering the 1st day of the Dragon Year. Caught my attention because of its battle with Perisai. Let's see who will test the 80 cents line and breaking further up.

6.) Timecom - History speaks a lot for themselves. Timecom had been an obedient counter for each first trading day. I believe, Timecom will continue to be an obedient kid.

Category 2 - Underdogs rebound
1.) Bertam - I hadn't been covering Bertam for some time after knowing its heavy manipulation in the stone cold stoppage and dead lock. However, I think this could be the time that they are waiting for. Let's see.

2.) Bkoon - Another Bertam related counter that had seen stone cold stunner towards the ground. Let's see if the time is ripe for harvesting.

3.) Trinity - Was once alive, and later dead. But, it had resurrected from the dead, and could be coming back in a greater bang.

Category 3 - Momentum
1.) Hibiscus - There are solid news behind the progress of Hibiscus in the market. With the seemingly positive going momentum on Hibiscus, we could be seeing a supportive push later today for a RM1.00.

2.) Redtone - One the ride of retesting 30 cents again.

3.) Cybert - I think 25 cents will not be holding long soon. Another GPRO, Flonic kind of remake here.

4.) Proton - Can Proton use this as an opportunity to continue what they had been doing since the past 2-3 weeks?

Emico, Dataprep, Versatile, SYF, Wijaya, MBF, Dialog.

Well, above provided are just an idea in case you are thinking what you want to monitor at. Kindly do your own analysis together with supportive signal to justify your views and also your decision to enter the market. Remember, do to trade wisely.

For more good action, be sure that you check out my lurking site for live actions.

Cheers and all the best.

Monday, 2 January 2012

New Year Effect - Are you in or out?

Well, it had been sometime for me since I last updated my blog. It had been a great time for me to finally take some time off the market, and wasting my time doing stuffs that I had not been doing - "Don't know what to do". No doubt that the stock market is in my blood, and not doing anything in relation to stock market, stock charting and financial analysis will makes me wondering what should I do next. Are you having the same syndrome that I am having? If yes, probably I can welcome you to join me.

On a quick note here, I would like to wish all of my faithful reader here, a belated happy new year to you.

I would like to wish you in wealth, in health, and in joyous mode throughout the ups and downs in the whole journey of the Dragon Year.

Now, let's come to understand a little about this so called "New Year Effect". I understand that to some of you out there, this "New Year Effect" might sound new to you, hadn't come through this kind of effect before, or literally no idea how could this happen. However, I believe that old gunners in the market will eventually know what is this effect all about as they had saw, ride and experienced this "New Year Effect" in the past years.

For those who are new might want to know - Why this New Year Effect? What is the fundamental behind this New Year Effect?

The New Year Effect had been in the market for quite sometime already. As we know that share market is largely influenced by what the majority of the market does during the same time, because of the past historical result, and the behavioral style from the traders/investor, hence the birth of this "New Year Effect".

New Year Effect, had been a behavioral action that the experienced traders relied upon. This effect is created because from the massive amount of trader who are doing the same bullish action, thus in overall pushing the overall market into a broad bullish mode, and encouraging traders to chip in to join in the fun together, hence creating a strong chain effect when more and more traders are convinced into the same action, doing the same thing.

For me, I am up to 99% convinced that the market tomorrow will be surely a bullish one, and we can surely anticipate a strings of unending action to happen in the KLSE market tomorrow. Of course, I would like to pull back my brakes to inform that not everything will be a bullish one. KLCI will be anticipated with a bullish run, however on the individual counter, one will need to spot those counters that have the history of new year effect to help justify for your own selection that it will be the correct selection.

So what about you now? Are you convinced of the New Year Effect? If yes, I hope tomorrow you will be in the correct boat of your selection.

Cheers and Have a good time.