Wednesday, 31 August 2011

Consumer confidence crumbles - A good opportunity on discount or more discount to come?

New York: The Conference Board, an industry group, said on Tuesday, Aug 30  its index of consumer attitudes sank to 44.5 from a downwardly revised 59.2 the month before. Economists had expected a much less pronounced decline.

Confidence among consumers plunged in August to its lowest in more than two years following the country's loss of its top credit rating and heart-wrenching drops in major stock indexes.

Concerns have grown that the United States might be heading toward a new recession. Consumers' flagging confidence might lead them to shut their wallets, although retail sales data hasn't pointed in that direction yet.
"What we are effectively going through is a crisis of confidence," said Tom Porcelli, an economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York.

The United States lost its AAA credit rating earlier this month following a drawn out battle in Washington over spending that nearly led the country to default on its obligations.

U.S. Treasuries prices extended gains on Tuesday on fears a pullback in consumer spending could trigger recession, while U.S. stock fell. The dollar hit a session low against the yen.

So far this year, data from industrial production to employment have been consistent with a slow-growth scenario rather than an outright contraction in economic output.

"There is basically nothing for consumers to be confident about," said Gennadiy Goldberg, a fixed income analyst at 4CAST in New York.

Concern over the outlook led the U.S. Federal Reserve earlier this month to say it would hold interest rates at rock-bottom level for at least the next two years, a decision that drew three dissents. Some Fed officials favor doing more to bring down the unemployment rate. A report on Friday is expected to show the jobless rate held at 9.1 percent in August.

The Fed releases the minutes of its August 9 meeting later on Tuesday and investors will scour them for clues on whether the Fed is likely to do more for the economy. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Evans, who is considered to be less focused on inflation risks than some of his colleagues, said on Tuesday he favored strong central bank accommodation for a substantial period of time.

"It's difficult to characterize the labor market as anything other than consistent with being in a recession," he told CNBC television.

"I'm in favor of some of the most aggressive policy actions of anyone on the committee," added Evans, who votes on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year.

Source here
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What is your next move? In or out? 

Investment Stress - Good or Bad ?

Quite a number of people would like to view stress as a bad thing. Stress can be generated from faulty relationship, work place politics, friends and relative, peers, financial management, and investment decision.

Every health and lifestyle magazine contains articles claiming stress is bad for us. They list dozens of ways to relieve stress, from exercise to eating healthy foods. A wide range of relaxation techniques have also been proven to help manage stress in our crazy-busy world., especially for people who take care of others and tend to neglect themselves.

But stress is not always as bad as these cautionary articles insist. In fact, some stress is actually necessary to keep us going and growing. Different individual responses to different types and levels of stress can either drain or energize us. It is how we perceive and process both ongoing and unexpected stress that intensifies or reduces their impact on our bodies, minds and emotions.

The term "stress" was first used in the mid-1950s by endocrinologist Dr. Hans Selye in his book "The Stress of Life". In his research experiments, Selye discovered that we experience stress not only when we hear bad news but also when we receive good news. he differentiated these two types of stressors by calling negative stress "distress" and positive stress "eustress" (The Greek prefix "eu" means well or good)

As market is looming in uncertainty, with great volatility, and chances of heading lower and lower are clearer in the path ahead of you, which "stress" are you in.?

Of course, it will boil down to how a person is going to react towards this market. In this world, there will always be people who will see a glass half full, or a glass half empty. The same can be applied to share market, either it is a good opportunity to buy more, or a bad time and cut more.

We had always been told to be optimistic, be positive, think positive. But, how many of us succeeded in doing so? In fact, people are so easily affected by the surrounding. Why? Could this be the lack of self confidence in their own decision? Could this be the lacking of the latest news on the market development, or too much of the latest news on the market development?

In my own opinion, I would like to say that how you manage your stress really depends on how you want to look at the situation as it is. If you look at the current market as a dead lock, crisis coming, and everything is going to collapse, market is going down and collapse, that could be the linking point of the "bad stress" coming to you, in which will result you to be emotionally affected. And when you are emotionally affected, and want to "distress" away, you will cut everything you got.

But on the other hand, if you can view the current market as a good opportunity, heading downwards means more cheaper stuffs awaiting for you, that is all of a different thing to look at. Tell me who is not happy if you enter a shopping mall that hangs up a 70-80% discount Mega sales. Will not you take out your credit card and swipe literally anything you like? Come on, who will not do that in the shopping mall? That could end up in "Good Stress", because there are too many cheap stuffs lying on the floor, and you do not know which one do you want to pick. Too excited over too many good stuffs that seems to good to be true.

Of course, ff you are sure of what you are doing, and confident on your investment, although when the market is going against you, you will definitely know what you are doing, even though if you are cutting loss in a sensible manner, you what you are doing, rather than having "bad stress" looming around you, which can affect your health. If you let that "bad stress" to form a grip in your heart, that will hamper your faith in share market again, and when the market plunge, you will not take the chance to enter the market again, which will result in a bigger loss to you in the future.

Here are some pointers on ways to manage stress:-
1. Changing our situation whenever possible.
2. Increasing our ability to cope with the situation as it is.
3. Changing our perception so the situation looks and feels different.
4. Changing our behaviour, as this is truly where we have the most control.


Whenever we feel stressed, it can be useful to first determine whether it's Distress or Eustress.Then we can decide whether to become Offensive by utilising or adjusting it, or remain Defensive and wait to see if the situation changes on its own. Sometimes choosing to live with stress is appropriate, like when it energises our competitive edge.

While the bad news is that it's nearly impossible to avoid stress in our crazy-busy world, the good news is that using stress management techniques and being mindful can actually make stress empowering instead of  draining.This puts us in control of the stressors in our lives so they can't stop us from continuing to go forward and grow more joyfully empowered every day.

All the best in your investment. Cheers

Tuesday, 30 August 2011

SRIDGE - Good quarterly reports. Hurray!

Hurray. SRIDGE in fact did not let me down. A indeed very good report, that had posted an increase of EPS of more than 5000%. From a lowly 0.03 cents to an improved 1.78 cents for the 2nd quarter of 2011. What do you have to say for Friday? Counting your money in your pockets soon? Hahaha.

I find this a very good counter indeed. I respect the management of the company that is practiced in a strict manner in confidential related issue. Why do I say so?
SRIDGE came into the limelight after their 1st quarterly report, which had started the ball rolling. Their first quarterly increase in report had started after the report announced. Clearly, there must be no/lesser insider trading. Either the accountant does not play shares, or the accountant hates to see everyone in the company making money.. Haha.

The 2nd quarterly report, despite knowing of such a dramatic increased, SRIDGE had not been seen with insider trading before the report is being released. Respect respect. Usually, most of the counter will already reflect the good news in the share price before the released of the report. Don't you agree in this?

Result HERE

I am expecting Friday to open in a big boom. If the share prices does not open in a gap up pricing, definitely worth to watch, and go in stage by stage if you had missed the boat earlier. If the share price gap open at a higher value, then remember to do some TA on daily graph chart. Enter at rebounding stage.

Cheers all the best in SRIDGE

MEGB - Masterskill or Masterkill ?

I have to admit that this stock is one of the most killing IPO, all the way from its peak of RM 4.05, and plunging it's way down to RM 1.32 as of today. This journey, I believe, had left a lot of investor in a bloody trail. Its recent posting of the result had add salt to wound on it's current situation + bad market sentiment. Research analyst CIMB had taken the step to downgrade MEGB price to a lowly RM 1.71.

After digging some of the background of the CEO, I had to admit that this CEO, Datuk Edmund Santhara, is very well linked with some good achievement. But please do not mistaken, I am not promoting his credential here, after seeing how he had mistreated all the MEGB shareholder in a brutal manner.

In fact during the month of February this year, Datuk Edmund Santhara had publicly informed the public that anything below the price of RM2 for the MEGB. See below news taken from The Star e-news.
Now what? After this news, what did we see. While no support is pour in to support the share prices, he just do some transfer of shares to his wife.

Masterskill, which raised RM771.3mil from its initial public offer (IPO) in May 2010, has succumbed to selling pressure yesterday.

The counter fell to a record low since its listing after Fidelity Management and Research, (FMR, LLC) the parent of Fidelity Investment, sold 280,000 shares in the former. The counter fell 8 sen, or 4.32%, to RM1.77, its lowest since its listing on May 18, 2010.

Yes, during this period of time, investor are furious over the open market selling from FMR, and their disposal have cut flesh open in all the investor's body. This is the 1st sign of lousy management and Public Relationship of the company. How can a company just allow foreign shareholding to dispose of shares in an open market? Could the management, or the CEO work out with the foreign fund to transfer the share out of their hand? But nothing had been done, and the CEO just gave some lame excuses. Fine.

After promising sky and earth, and make some promotion on the company happenings.
1. Student Intakes
2. Franchising
3. New campus

And here we come again on the report. From the previous 5 cents EPS in 1st quarter, 2nd quarter, we are seeing 3 cents EPS. Bravo job? Hmm. I thought this CEO is very smart with all his achievements?
Is there some kind of mismanagement in the company? No effective cost management? Any rescue plan for it?

In conclusion, MEGB is Masterkill. One of the most successful slaughtering process.
I think this stock will need a real serious restructuring before things could be better again. If not, the outlook will continue to be bleak for this counter, and earning will definitely shrink, and dividend will not be able to keep pace with it anymore. For those keeping, all the best, hope there are some exit plans for this as I am expecting the price to continue to side way trend of going down more until something solid is out.

Monday, 29 August 2011

Stock Watch for 29th August 2011

Tomorrow will mark the last day of trading before the Hari Raya Holidays start to splash into action. Before I start talking, I would like to wish all my Malay friends a Selamat Hari Raya Adilfitri. Best wishes to you and your family, and have a good and safe journey back to kampung. May all my friend be blessed abundantly.

As we know that tomorrow will be a half day trading day for the KLSE. DJIA had taken a step to end in green on Friday, but frankly speaking, this green signal does not really mean anything in such market sentiment, where there are no solid news to mark the return of the Bull in the market. In fact, the Bears are still in control of the market, and they are ready to unleashed their wrath towards any investor who would want to take a punt that market will be turning into a bull mode soon.

As my usual advice, please do stay away from any warrants, especially on call warrants because they are very sharp. Time like this, what you can do is to sit down and relax, and analyze the market, and see how the KLSE will response towards the news from the US. Although no money is involved, it will be interesting to analyze the KLSE market movement.

In my own opinion, tomorrow will most probably a OPEN HIGH, SELL DOWN day for most of the stocks. If you had got some stocks in Friday, it is a good time to sell in the beginning of Monday as I am expecting stock to open a few cents higher. Locking profits are good, do not be too greedy. As for those who are still at sideline, do some research on some good valuable blue chips which still had bright future, GLC linked and strong fundamentals. I believe banking stocks will be worth to take a look since a lot of them are heavily sold down lately.

Anyway, here are some of my stock list that I would recommend to take a look at it :-
1.) SRIDGE - This is getting interesting. Do you believe in "The best will always be kept for the last?" Haha. Probably this can be applied here? Tomorrow will mark the last trading day for the month of August before investor will go into holiday moods. Can we expect something to happen here? I am still keeping my hope that this counter will report a rather good result.

2.) Smartag - Standing strong amidst the broader bad market sentiment. Had been able to stand above 0.26 level. In fact, I had been trying to fish more stock at this counter at the price of 0.26, and it had been unsuccessful so far. I think, maybe I just need to increase my stake at a premium price soon? Haha.. Let's see if there are some UMA movement that could reflect some progress in the RFID customs project that will be bearing a RM70 million price tag per year.

3.) TWS - Despite reporting a good profit, despite dividend after dividend in a consistent manner, this counter had been sold down because KLCI ended in a real bad shape, -19.93 on Friday. Personally, I feel that food related counter like TWS will not be a wrong play in the coming 2 to 3 years at least. Food will be a booming sector soon as demand increases. Recommend to fish this stock stage by stage, no hurries.

4.) Bernas - Market sentiment had been in a bad mode, but they sell down does not work here. Bernas got hit down to almost RM2.50 during the hot melt down, but look at the rebound. Putting a foot hold at RM2.90 on Friday. Remember, rice... Everyone will need to eat rice. Don't you eat rice? Probably it is time to think how many KGs of rice you had eaten down your throat.

5.) WaSeong - Had been covering this counter before it's quarterly report came out. It could be a good counter as we continue to expect more and more, better and better result in the coming quarter for the year 2011. Should tomorrow open high, do be cautious as might be a sell down. But overall, this could be a good stock to keep as I am anticipating a good dividend in the end of the year.

Cheers. Have fun trading tomorrow.

Saturday, 27 August 2011

SapCres + Kencana - Still a journey to play

SapuraCrest Petroleum Bhd and Kencana Petroleum Bhd expects their merger to take place by the first quarter (1Q) of 2012.  

The RM11.85 billion merger will result in the world’s fifth largest oil and gas services provider to compete with global oil majors for more complex, capital intensive projects.

The boards of both companies recently established an integration committee to be jointly chaired by SapuraCrest executive vice-chairman and president Datuk Shahril Shamsuddin and Kencana group CEO Datuk Mokhzani Mahathir.

In a joint statement yesterday, they expressed keen interest to explore the opportunities and dynamics as a merged entity via Integral Key Sdn Bhd (IKSB), the special purpose vehicle wholly-owned by Mayban Ventures Sdn Bhd.

Shahril and Mokhzani said the companies viewed the merger as an enabler on multiple levels and the dynamics would work for them.

“With a suite of assets and services that clearly complement each other, we can unlock the full potential of our abilities as a combined company and move steadily into the next chapter of growth.

“We are highly optimistic about fostering a solid partnership based on our mutual respect for each other and a shared vision to build an entity on a foundation of integrity, strong core values and merit.
This is an absolute necessity to compete locally and on a global stage,” they said.

Under the cash and share-swap deal approved by both boards, IKSB will acquire all assets and liabilities of SapuraCrest for RM5.87 billion and that of Kencana for RM5.98 billion.

The companies expect to secure 75% approval from their respective shareholders at EGMs to be held by end-year.
The merger is being jointly advised by Maybank Investment Bank Bhd and CIMB Investment Bank Bhd.

Source here

Asia in dividend play

Asian equities is commonly thought of as a high-risk, growth driven, speculative proposition and as such is not often considered as the ideal market for a dividend yield-driven strategy. With the top quintile of yielding stocks in Asia Pacific having delivered a consistent yield of around 4-6% per annum over the past 10 years before capital growth, Asia can provide a strong and sustained source of yield for income-minded equity investor. A dividend yield-based strategy is a preferred method for investing in this region, as it can deliver a  significantly greater return than the regional index, with lower downside risk whilst providing a solid income stream for those who want it.

For instance, a monthly-rebalanced strategy investing in the top quintile of high dividend/high earnings yield stocks in Asia-Pacific (Excluding Japan) would have outperformed the regional MSCI index by over 10% per annum since 1996.

By their nature, high yielding companies tend to be well established with efficient and shareholder-focused management teams. Over time, these companies often deliver better growth.


A dividend yield-driven strategy also provides a discipline to investment management. This is crucial in the context of Asian equities. Right now, we are seeing the rise of what will probably be two of the most influential markets of the coming decades: China transformation are gathering, ready to sweep changes through these huge economies - and there are plenty of "surfers" gathering to catch the Asian market - possibly more than any other - is subject to the resultant speculation and momentum.


In this context, a disciplined approach can cut through the short-term noise to identify the real opportunities. History has shown that dividend signals provide powerful indicators of when you should be buying particular stocks and sectors and - crucially - when you should sell. 

The combination of using models and fundamental company analysis can identify areas of huge opportunity or market segments which have run a little too far. It can reduce behavioral biases, such as the refusal to buy falling stocks or the reluctant to sell "winners". Most active investment professionals are focused on trying to exploit the behavioral biases of other participants in the market. That is exactly what this approach does.

Friday, 26 August 2011

Do you Buy High Sell Low? Or Buy Low Sell High?

Ask yourselves this; if the stock market falls drastically and reaches half of its peak value within the span of a few months, what do you think is more likely to happen? Will the stock market continues to plunge to the depths of the oblivion? Or will it slowly recover from the lows?

Considering the low base of the stock market at that point and the tendency to regress to the mean, the logical answer would be that the beaten stock market would be far more likely to return to historical average values, and that is no doubt the answer that most of us would give, when asked this question.

In 2008, stock markets around the world experienced an unprecedented drop just like the one just described. With that, ask yourselves this; what investment decision did you make when you noticed that the index plunged 20-30% within a few months? Did you increase or decrease your investment or did you sell your investments?

If you had sold your investment in favor of cash, your actions would be contrary to the logical reply that you have most likely chosen for the first question. Selling your investments after a drastic drop is contrary to tell well known truism of "buy low. sell high", after all you are selling at the low.

While you may not have sold at the low point of the market, so long as you sold at a price lower than your purchase price, you are losing money investing in shares.

This leads us to one of the most important findings of behavioral finance, Tversky and Kahneman's propsect theory (1979).

To better illustrate their findings, first consider this situation. Given a choice between a certain gain of RM1 and a 1% chance of gaining RM100, what would you do? According to Tversky and Kahneman's study, a majority of people would prefer the chance of gaining RM100 over the certain gain of RM1, even though they logically have equivalent value (RM100 x 1% = RM1). This led them to two important conclusion.

First of all, people underweight probability.  That is, given two choices of equivalent value, like the one we just described, people are more likely to choose an opportunity for large gains over the certainty of a smaller gain.

Second, they found that people are prone to feel more pain from losses than they are to feel the joy from equivalent gains. We can illustrate this using another example, given a choice between a certain loss of RM1 and a 1% chance of losing RM100, an even greater portion of people would choose to take the certain loss of RM1.

How does all this relate to share market investments?

These 2 factors converge to drive investor behavior.

The tendency to underweight probability also drives investor to continue to chase infinitesimal odds of spectacilar gains at the peaks of bull markets. Simply put, the majority of investors are buying high.

Perhaps more importantly, is the fact that investor overweight losses compared to gains. We need to look further than the questions we had asked earlier to see how a basically irrational fear of catastrophic loss, regardless of how infinitesimal the odds, drives the majority of investment decision made by investor (perhaps even the reader's). That is, the majority of investors are selling low.

Put together, this explains the tendency for the majority of investors to go against conventional wisdom to buy high and sell low.

So, the ultimate question is, do you buy high sell low, or buy low sell high? Does your action do like what you think - Buy low, sell high ?

Cheers. Happy trading

Thursday, 25 August 2011

We are Trader - Master of Risk

We are traders. This is a hard journey, where we will get a lot of down and criticism..

But bear in heart, we are professional and master of RISK.
We are not afraid to take losses, not afraid to talk about our losses, and come back brighter than before..



Cheers, and all the best. Don't give up, because winner will continue the run despite up and down, and whiner will continue with the whine.


Silver - Substitute for gold?

The prices of the gold had finally take a deep plunge, from a peak of USD 1900+ per ounce, slumping all the way down the hill to a low USD 1700 line. Quite a wingless plunge, falling free as the earlier investor start to take profit in bulk, cashing out and taking the cash on their hand now.

Question is, what will they do with this amount of cash temporarily after they cash out? Could this mark the end of the terror wave that had swept from US to Europe and to Japan? Well, frankly speaking, by judging in an overall look, it seems like the party had just got its mini spark on. A lot of US blue chip had been hammered down the drain, and is lingering at a 50% discounted price from its recent peak. Good example like Bank of America. People are cashing in now into the equity market to get some valuable blue chips, and also some good yielding stock with strong fundamental.

What had been even dramatic is that KLSE is playing on its own playground, ignoring what is happening to the neighboring country. I fully understand that this is quite a sad case for most of the KLSE stock market punters, including me.

Gold had took a harsh beating, Silver had not been spared as well. Silver had been closing lower and lower each day, and is lingering at the price near USD 39 per ounce. But in the long run, what do you think of the potential prospectus of Silver?

In my own opinion, I am quite positive towards investing in Silver. I believe Gold will certainly reach a point where it will put Silver into some action as Silver had been much more cheaper than Gold to say, and there is much more space for Silver to make some upwards run compared to Gold. I think Silver will be a good buy in the long run, 3 to 5 years down the road, we should be able to see the value of Silver rising.

In fact, China had been offering Silver bullion for the public to invest. See the video for more information



Investment demand for Silver is soaring in China as the white metals is increasingly looked at as jewelry, industrial metal and an essential component in electronics and automotive industry. In 2010, China imported an unprecedented 14 percent of global silver as the demand for silver has been growing in the country. Till last year, China has been historically been a net exporter of silver.

In an interview to Silver Investing News, Chris Berry, founder of Mountain House Partners, said: “I know that the Chinese are buying huge blocks of the SLV silver ETF and then selling it to try and get their hands on the physical metal.”

‘You have the Chinese sitting on a store of $2.5 trillion US of which they know is completely useless, so I think they are looking at gold, but also at silver as a store of value and a way to hedge against the decline of the US dollar,’ he said.

While the SPDR Gold Trust exchange-traded fund (GLD) has increased 23.7 percent in the past twelve months, the corresponding silver exchange-traded fund (SLV) has skyrocketed 113.3 percent in the same time period.
In addition to its use as a hedge against inflation, silver is a key component in photovoltaic panels, which means industrial demand for silver is set to increase further as power companies up their utilization of solar energy.

“There is industrial demand for silver. You’ve got really two things going: there is infrastructure growth in Asia, but also silver is used in a lot of consumer goods,” said Berry. He explained that as China’s middle class grows, so does its demand for luxury “quality of life” goods, many of which contain silver. And it’s not only jewelry; silver is also a key component in electronics and the automotive industry.

Berry says that although he does see demand for Silver in manufacturing, even in emerging markets like China it is its role as a hedge against inflation that is causing the greatest global demand for the mineral. “I think that has less to do with industrial demand and more to do with its role as a store value.”

According to Jim Steel, senior vice president and metals analyst with HSBC, the rising yield curve is supportive for a metal like silver. Silver benefits from its dual purpose as a currency and an industrial metal, he said.

He says an informal poll HSBC took among buyers of the silver ETFs suggested these buyers are mostly individuals who are holding onto theirs for inheritance reasons and that may be one reason why there’s been less movement out of the silver ETFs. “It could be that silver is off the market for years,” he said.

According to a recent research report from China Research Intelligence (CRI), an important feature of China's silver market is that the domestic price is higher than international market price.

“Domestic price of silver in China is not completely synchronized with the international price and it lags behind with too large fluctuation, resulting in increasing risk of downstream silver consuming enterprises,” says the report.

The CRI report said that China urgently needs to improve the formation mechanism of domestic silver price and seek appropriate trade modes to maintain values and avoid risks. It will be the general trend to introduce silver futures.

China and India are the largest silver marketplaces globally. While unprecedented constructions and setting up of new factories are driving up the industrial demand for silver, rising gold prices is forcing people to opt for silver jewelry in place of gold jewelry.

Wednesday, 24 August 2011

Location of Speed Trap for this Raya

For all my friends who will be traveling back during the festive season, kindly do take note on the following.
Plus Arah Utara (Dari KL):
1- Km 197.1, Km 198.8 & Km 204.3 selepas exit Kemunting
2- Km 208 & Km 214.8 sebelum exit Kemunting
3- Km 271 berdekataan exit Ipoh Selatan
4- Km 274.4 berdekatan exit Ipoh Utara
5- Km 286.9 berdekatan exit Simpang Pulai
6- Km 296 berdekatan exit Gopeng
7- Km 352.6 selepas exit Sungkai
8- Km 373 berdekatan exit Slim River
9- Km 241.9 berdekatan exit Kuala Kangsar
10- Km 308.6 selepas exit Gopeng
11- Km 252 masa turun bukit selepas terowong Menora
12- Km tak pasti tapi betul2 di R&R Gurun
13- 2 km after tol Juru (90km/j)
14- 5 kamera di atas jambatan pulau pinang
Plus Arah Selatan:
1- Km 289 sebelum exit Nilai Selatan
2- Ada 3 kamera antara Km 255 - Km 249 (Persimpangan Seremban - Senawang)
3- Km 253 selepas exit Senawang
4- Km 213.9 selepas exit Alor Gajah
5- Betul betul di exit Jasin
6- Km tak pasti tapi selepas hentian sebelah Tangkak
7- Km juga tak pasti tapi jambatan pertama selepas exit Yong Peng utara
8- Km 97.3 selepas exit Air Hitam
9- Betul betul di exit Sedenak

Plus Tengah:
1- Km 456 selepas exit Sungai Buluh
2- Betul betul di exit Bukit Lanjan
3- Betul betul dibawah Restoran Jejantas Sg Buloh
4- Km 302.8 berdekatan exit Kajang
5- Km 296.5 & Km 297 berdekatan exit Bangi

NKVE
1- 300 meter sebelum tol Jalan Duta (60 km/j)
2- Selepas cabang jalan ke tol Jalan Duta (80km/j)
3- Betul betul di exit Damansara
4- Km 11.2 berdekatan rel keretapi
5- Betul betul di exit Shah Alam


KESAS
1- Km 44.8 berdekatan exit LDP
2- Berhadapan Endah Parade
3- Betul betul di exit Hicom

ELITE (Dari arah KLIA)
1- Km 4.8 selepas exit Batu 3
2- Km 2 - Km 4 atas jambatan berdekatan Makro
3- Betul betul di bawah restoran jejantas USJ
4- Km 10 sebelum exit USJ

JALAN PERSEKUTUAN
1- Bersebelahan Hotel Mint
2- Berdekatan Esso kat exit Salak Selatan
3- Berhadapan dengan Istana Negara
4- Berhadapan dengan Muzium Negara
5- Kawasan turun bukit selepas pekan Raub (Menghala Kuala Lipis)
6- 2 km sebelum pekan Maran (Arah Kuantan)
7- Area Paya Bungor (Arah Kuantan)
8- Selepas exit ke Bentong (Menghala ke LPT)
9- Jalan Gambang - Kuantan (Turun bukit selepas Matrikulasi Pahang)
10- Berhadapan dengan Mini Malaysia Melaka (70km/j)
11- Berhadapan dengan Zoo Melaka (70 km/j)
12- Bawah jambatan dari Banting ke KLIA (80 km/j)
13- Berhadapan dengan Kolej Inti, Nilai
14- Persimpangan Sg Manggis menghala ke Klang (60 km/j)
15- Berhadapan Tesco Klang (70 km/j)
16- Jambatan berdekatan rumah MB Selangor kat Pasir Panjang (70km/j)
17- 2 km selepas sempadan Perak-Selangor di Jalan Sabak Bernam (berdekatan kilang kelapa sawit)
18- Laluan bertingkat antara USM ke Bayan Lepas
19- Jelutong expressway berdekatan Tesco Pulau Pinang
20- MRR2 antara simpang Taman Melati & Wangsa Maju
21- MRR2 berhadapan Mikro Cheras
22- MRR2 ke damansara,antara batu cave ke Bandar baru selayang
 Cheers and take care during this festive season. Do not speed and end up paying money to the police summons. Have a safe journey back home.

The Gold Rush - It had not ended yet

Seems like my instinct is quite good in this wave of fear. As mentioned earlier in my post here, should the economic fear go around the globe, Starting from US, then to Europe, then to Asia now, we will be able to see gold touching USD 2000 ounce in no time.

Just a recap, US had sent gold touching USD 17xx to 18xx per ounce, heavyweight in Europe continue to send gold prices into a Euphoria mode, touching a high of USD 19xx per ounce recently, and now Asia (Japan - Strongest in economy in Asia country) is going to take gold prices to USD 2000 per ounce with the recent downgrade on its sovereign debt.

This crisis, which had been sweeping all the way from West to East, but, where will it stop? Will it stop in Japan? And things will turn around again? Or will it continue to sweep from East to West again?

In my own opinion, actually the market is still operating as it is, business as normal. Don;t you think so? It is just the world of shares that is throwing a big snowball around, spreading tons of amplified fear factor. I would labeled that the S&P had actually started the BEAR game by kicking the ball rolling first. Things had been amplify to a stage of FEAR where FEAR is gripping investor heart, and retailer are throwing shares like no other people business.

Personally thinking, once the wave of FEAR takes on the last stop - Asia, the economy will then turn into a whole new ball, and we will be able to see some bulls coming out to take charge of the field again. A great nation like Japan will be able to tackle issue like this, just that they need some time to come out with a good solution.

Everything here is my own opinion and sharing. Do you buy into this opinion of mine? It depends on how you interpret this game - Is Asia the last stop?
Yes --> Proceed to buy them at low prices.
No --> Cut loss, or freeze them.

All the best in trading, and let's see and witness in our own eyes as GOLD will project to soar into USD 2000 per ounce. But remember one thing, after Japan, who is the next country that will continue this big ball game to bring Gold higher? Think

Tuesday, 23 August 2011

Stock Watch for 24th August 2011

As the deadline for the quarterly report is edging nearer and nearer, things are getting even more interesting and hotter as well. It is a very good time to charge into those counter that had yet to announce their quarterly report.

Just a note. The list of recommended counter are all based on unannounced quarterly reports that I am anticipating for a good result.

As my list grow smaller and smaller, it will go hotter and hotter, and more interesting and exciting. It should be a good time to open a margin shark mouth as T+3 will bring you to next Monday. Can hold long enough until the result are out. Cheers

Now let's look at my new list that we can go in for tomorrow. (Hopefully non of the counter mention here will post a quarterly report early in the wee hours of the morning, as that will disrupt the game play of that counter)

Topping my list is the very much high anticipated penny stock.
1.) Sridge - I continue to believe, and anticipated a quite good and splashing quarterly from Sridge, just like MMode.

2.) Kulim - It's first quarter is not giving a shy outlook. 2nd quarter, should it be able to maintain? Looking at the way the share price had been moving, I would take a step further to justify that the upcoming quarter could be off a good result. Charge on..!!

3.) TWS - Food food food. What could be more important than food compared to your foot? Without food, you cannot survived, without foot, you cannot kick a ball only, but still can survive. I am positive on it's quarterly result outlook by looking at how the share had rebounded back to the RM9 level. Mflour had announced its special weapon today, expecting heavier punt on TWS soon.

4.) Mulpha - More and more shares purchase back into treasury. Something good gonna happen soon? Let's see.. Anticipating a great result here as well.

5.) Cresbld - Not much movement today. But anticipating a good report from them. Let's see.

6.) WaSeong - Today movement is not bad. Seen riding up some waves, going up and down. Should be time to realize its power soon. Ending note at 2.06, with more than 6k lots exchanging hand at this point in the wee hour before closing.

7.) TimeCom - A much beaten down share, been riding down the hill since 90 cents. Can the quarterly report be the wave of change for this down trend? Let's seek for more confirmation on the share price movement.

8.) IOICorp - A lot of buying into treasury. Report yet to come out. Let's see what will happen to the figure. Can the report be the antidote to cure the current plunge?

9.) Malton - Can it shine like a star? Let's see. Anticipate an interesting report.

F&N - Coca Cola = ?

The time is quite near for F&N to call it a full stop in producing the world most famous drink - COCA COLA.  How would this impact F&N? Is F&N ready for this kind of fun, coupled off with this kind of market sentiment, looks like they are falling down from a mountain with a potential huge snow ball just right behind them, ready to crush them off anytime soon.

Coca Cola, representing about 30% of the whole F&N revenue, will surely give a hard impact for the company financial result in the coming days. Now F&N is thinking of a solution day and night to fill up this big gap that is left by Coca Cola, worst even, not only not contributing, but being a competitor in snatching the market share as well.

In my opinion, the agreement will 100% not be renewed anymore, as I will give my point later towards my justification. Attached the news taken from The Star Online, which highlighted that the operation will stop completely on 30 September 2011.

Well, if you guys and girls do know of, Coca Cola had actually set up their manufacturing plant in Nilai. Yes, this is not a myth, and the plant is actually up and running already.

In March 2010, Coca-Cola announced the construction of a new bottling plant in Malaysia. The announcement was made during the groundbreaking ceremony for the new plant. The facility is being built at Bandar Enstek industrial park in Nilai in the southern state of Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. Coca-Cola will invest $302m (MYR1bn) over the following five years in the new plant.

Coca-Cola took the decision to locate the new plant in Nilai within four months after studying several other locations. Nilai was chosen because of the lower logistics costs for transporting raw materials and finished goods. The city is also close to Kuala Lumpur and Port Kland, and has a good supply of water and electricity. The availability of freehold land that fits into the timeline of the project was also a reason for choosing the Nilai site. In addition, the Malaysian Government offered several attractive incentives to set up the plant in the country.

Construction of the new plant will make Coca-Cola a direct competitor to Fraser and Neave and other local players.

One of the reason for Coca Cola in choosing Nilai is because of Kian Joo aluminium can factory that is located nearby there as well.

According to some sources inside Kian Joo, Coca Cola had been taking at least 1.4million of aluminium cans from Kian Joo per month, making them one of the biggest customer for Kian Joo as Coca Cola seeks to expand their market shares in the Malaysian market.

Coca Cola identify that the per capita consumption of the company's soft drinks is low in Malaysia which is at 4-6% per year, while the consumption rate in other emerging markets is almost double the amount here in Malaysia. As Coca Cola aims to capitalized more market share with their already well known drink, we could be expecting more benefits to come for Kian Joo in the coming days.

Stock Watch for 23rd August 2011

It is Tuesday now. So what is so cool about this day - Tuesday.
I think this day is a very strategic day to put some plans into it, and work it out with more cash as the result.

I am expecting a lot of Bursa announcement on quarterly reports to be announced during this week alone. Yes, there are already tons of them being announced today, and quite a number of them are doing great, but I believe that they are more and more to come.

Why Tuesday is a good and cool day. Let's take a lot
Tue  = T + 0
Wed = T + 1
Thu  = T + 2
Fri   = T + 3

If you are buying those stocks that had not announced its quarterly report as of now, you can open up your big mouthed margin / credit limit and start to digest and crunch those counter on Tuesday already, because you are covered with quarterly reports effects.

But make sure that the company that you are crunching on will be anticipated with a good quarterly result. If not, you will ride on doomsday rather than good day.

Amongst my pick for this coming tomorrow, anticipated with a good quarterly result
1. Digistar - With a potential of more than 1000% increase in EPS should my source is accurate
2. Sridge - Anticipating a really good result following its good EPS on 1st quarter.
3. TWS - Looking at the movement of shares, I think this is quite a good indication of what is behind
4. MLour - 1st quarter 27.67 cents. What will be 2nd quarter? I bet around the same, lingering at 25 cents
5. Mulpha - Some miraculous figures to come out with ? Let's see
6. Kulim - Plantation madness? Result should be a much convincing looking at how those crazy graph move back to strength.
7. Cresbld 8591 - Time to look at it. Previous quarter reporting a 332% increase in EPS.
8. POS - EPF busy acquiring, along with Credit Suisse Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Grp.
9. WaSeong - A beaten down share, but full of potential, especially it's report,


Cheers and happy scouting.

Monday, 22 August 2011

Smartag - Buying a pile of gold or mud?

The recent market had been much volatile, from top to bottom, and bottom to top. Some might like this kind of swing, as it will provide an opportunity to earn (And also to lose). A market with no swing, no movement might be boring.

My pick for the coming days will be Smartag Solution Berhad. Probably there are a lot of onlookers that will think, why Smartag? There are a lot of other better company to play with.

Well, in my own opinion, I believe that Smartag current situation is like you are paying a sum of money so that you can use a shovel to dig a pile of earth up. But what could be inside the earth? Could it be gold, or really a pile of useless mud after cleaning them up?

Well, the current situation, looking it at a surface manner, seems to be like a 50-50% chance of landing the project. Either you get it, or you don't get it. So, do you think Smartag Solutions Berhad can ACE this project in an easy manner.

The potential return of the project is no joke, very huge instead. And by looking at this niche market, Smartag is in a good position for a project like this. With an estimated of annual recurring income of at least 70 million is a no joke for any type of company. So, the question here is, is Smartag worth the bet?

Looking at the share prices, Smartag had took a real beating after peaking up at the range of 0.4x during its fire hot period from IPO. The fire had seemed to die down, and share price had been putting up a negative rally downwards, until lingering at a rock bottom of 24 cents. The downside of the stock at the current position is heading down towards 17 cents or lesser should they failed to secure the Custom RFID projects. Alright, now enough on the negative side. Let's look at the bright potential side of the whole company.

Using 26 cents to punt on a good recurring income project, which is also highly possible in landing it, is no joke a good punt. Considering it's upside swing in a short term that could go to 50 cents or 70 cents (Bone's opinion) in a short term, and a long term target of above RM 1.00 (Bone's opinion) should the project start pouring in the income and dividend start to roll in.

What is adding the spices into the current situation is the much sought after word - RELATIONSHIP. Success can never go on without RELATIONSHIP, agree or not, but you have to agree to this. Smartag, I believe, is somehow connected with the government body. Don't ask me deeper about this as I am no Smartag CEO here. But to be able to see itself in the limelight of the ETP, i believe, will not be a bad light after all. Just take a look at Tricubes. This kind of company, can you see its potential in RELATIONSHIP? This word can just turn the table around, and play a whole different game altogether.

Now, let's take a look at a snapshot from the Investor Relation officer.

 
Looking at the highly anticipation of securing the projects, let's hope for the best.

Conclusion: The potential upside of the company outshine the downside of it.
Bone's recommendation: Accumulate stage by stage. No rush to chase high at a market sentiment like this. (Exceptional clause - If shares maintained position and going higher with strong volume, buy it straight as price reflect the effect of the insider news immediately)


Cheers and happy trading

Investing for an income - Asian Equities

Traditional sources of income have become increasingly anaemic in recent times. Deposit rates have been slashed to kick-start economic growth. If you can get a 4% yield FD, you better not hesitate another time, but the fact is there is none now. While rental yields have been squeezed down to the valley bottom, there is hardly a property that can gives a 7-8% rental yield based on the current prices of the property market. As Government bond yield remain depressed in many countries, investor are turning to a surprising asset class to provide income - Asia Pacific equities.

Asian companies have not been noted historically for their corporate governance or focus on shareholder return. As a very broad generalization, dynamic growth and fierce competition in many sectors has led to growth for its own sake in recent decades. Market share mattered more than return on equity or efficient capital management.

The Asian Crisis of 1997 - 1998 literally crushed many over-leveraged businesses and provided a harsh lesson to those that survived. The capital destruction that marked the rise of some industries in Asia - where technology companies bought golf courses and start-ups owned corporate jets has become increasingly rare instead, managers are increasingly focused on more efficient and productive deployment of capital. This has seen corporate net dent across Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) fall by 2/3 to less than 20%, whist maintaining a strong, consistent return on equity. This is a painful lesson that other regions are only now starting to learn while for Asia over this time, the relative and absolute levels of dividend distributions have continued to rise.

There are 2 elements underpinning a company's dividend policy - the ability to pay and the willingness to pay. Lowered debt and strong earnings provide the ability to pay. We are also seeing an increased willingness to pay as companies embrace the culture of dividends.

There have always been the traditional pockets of yield within the region in sectors such as telecommunications and utilities. These areas have limited growth prospects, depending on the country, and have returned a significant portion of their cash flows to the investor. However we are seeing dramatic changes right now in sources of dividend yield. Some larger Korean and Taiwanese technology companies, having survived the 2001 crash and established a solid market share, are now returning value through dividends.

Looking across the globe at the moment, Asia Pacific offers a dividend yield in excess of most developed market. Chinese companies have started to embrace the dividend paying culture and it is expected that further opportunities will come in the future (etc. Maxwell). The Indian market is still slim in term of dividends but if this changes, the opportunities are immense. There are some areas which do have a comparable yield, but not one which offers Asia's combination or better growth, better demographics and better balance sheets.

Sunday, 21 August 2011

Uprising Market - Asia in Focus

Whilst the global economy continues to splutter along with positive albeit sluggish growth, Asian economies are relatively well-placed. Individual, corporate and government debts are all at relatively low levels, meaning that incremental income growth can be spent, rather than used to delverage.

US monetary policy should remain relatively loose for the foreseeable future, coupled with the healthy outlook for Asian economies, would be expected to drive optimism for Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) equities in 2011.

Over the longer term, capital markets are growing to reflect Asia's increased economic prominence. The region is increasingly drive by China and India, 2 economies where the problem is not maintaining growth, but slowing and smoothing it to prevent overheating. While Asia does face its problems, they are no more confronting or demanding than the issues around sovereign solvency facing the developed markets of the West.


Asia will probably remain a relatively volatile market, given the rapid changes taking place at an economic level and the increasingly free flow of capital across borders. However, this also means the behavioral biases that a dividend yield strategy seeks to exploit remain firmly in place. Coupled with improving corporate governance, an increased focus on shareholder return and the gradual acceptance of the dividend culture, it makes for a compelling environment for a yield-driven strategy.

Conclusion, a dividend yield-based strategy is a preferred method for investing in the Asia region, as it can deliver a significantly greater return that the regional index, with lower downside risk whilst providing a solid income stream for those who want it.

Friday, 19 August 2011

The Gold Rush - You Hug Gold or Gold Hug You?

The mad gold rush season is still a hot topic, it had not subsided, and the recent dip back to USD 173x zone seems to be like just a correction on the gold prices. As the market continue to play a volatile, roller coaster type of game, more and more investor are turning towards some less heart attack roller coaster game - The Gold Rush game.

Gold had continue to rallied further, breaking the USD 1800 per ounce barrier, and look set to continue its run upwards to break USD 1900 per ounce as well. The previous surge of gold from USD 16xx to 17xx is fueled by the US debt crisis, where S&P downgrade the sovereign triple A debt grading to a AA+. As soon as this had been resolved, gold then linger back to USD 173x to 174x for a moment, but not until the highlighting of the European crisis came and put fuel into the already volatile market.

In my opinion, the breaking of gold prices above USD 1800 per ounce from the 17xx mark is contributed by the European crisis that we are witnessing globally. So, let's say gold will touch reach a high mark in the USD 18xx zone, who will be the next continent that will continue this baton passing game to push gold into the USD 2000 per ounce area? Asia? Africa? Europe + US? Hmm.. Looking at the current situation, there seems to be no recipient at the moment to continue fueling this process. (At least in my own opinion)

So, if you are thinking into going into gold now, probably you would want to consider properly whether chasing high now is a good time or not. Will gold really able to reach a high of USD 2000 per ounce. Can the people really afford that kind of price? Won't you think that they will be a lot of profit taking in the area of high 18xx zone, (For those who had cashed in at 15xx, 16xx and 17xx zone).

When economy is starting to turn bad, you hug gold is good because you are early. But when gold is reaching a peak, you hug gold, will end up gold hug you, then dead lock position when the gold take a plunge.

So the question here is... Is the economy just started to turn bad? And where is the peak of gold? And will the economy just take a dramatic U-turn, and continue to spin upwards?

These are the question you would really want to ask yourself then.. Cheers and all the best.


Market watch for 19 August 2011

Volatile, volatile, volatile. This is what I can say. Right after seeing some signs of recovery back from a steep plunge, we again witness in front of our own, yet another steep plunge again. Today, the DJIA had been trying to fool around in the -400 zone. What will the headless KLSE response to this? Fear, or no fear?

As highlighted before, and would like to highlight again, please do not engage in any sort of warrant trading in a time like this. Go for something even more solid, and back by good news will be better as they had the power to rebound from the slump as they had projects in hand.

Tomorrow, KLSE will open in a deep red mode. It could be the time for some ACE and penny market presentation moment again, or maybe I could be wrong in this? ACE and penny are popular for this sort of market sentiment for the first 1-2 days.

I will not be doing any coverage for tomorrow, as market will be hammered down. But, my instinct tells me that tomorrow KLCI trend will be Opening in deep down, and recover back.

Counter to watch for any frying session for Fryday can be chosen based on this criterias:-
1.) ACE / Penny stock
2.) Lesser than 100 million shares issued
3.) Signs of up breaking trend


Others can look at examples like: MNC, MAA, Kurasia, Magna, Digistar.

Well, different people, different criteria. This is not a guideline to choose frying counter for tomorrow.

Thursday, 18 August 2011

European Backlash - The meltdown?

We shall not underestimate what's happening in the Europe side of the world. It's like a financial super volcano that's been spouting off steam for the last 18 months. When fiscal deficits is at the periphery of the European Union were the problem last year. now the problem is whether the whole European project can even survive.

Could this be the news that are haunting each and everyone, spreading fears? Who know. It could come true. Let's read on and see.

We're at in the evolution of the Global Financial Crisis. The solvency of the European project is in doubt and uncertainty just loom around.

But all you have to do is look at the numbers and you'll see that something in Europe is going to blow. Europe's currency union could blow. National fiscal policy could blow. If the Eurobond comes into play, it could tempers millions of Germans and French and blow up if Europe collectivizes its liabilities. But without Eurobond in the picture, it looks like the European financial crisis will be in a dead lock.
 
On Italy and Spain alone, these two counties already require nearly €750 billion in refinancing and new deficit spending in the next two years while the European banks, stuffed with government bonds could require as much as €250 billion in order to be adequately capitalized, according to Britain's Telegraph.

Europe has a $13 trillion economy. If you collectivize the debts of the various national governments, they amount to about 87% of GDP. A huge number out there, but it's not the 90% Rogoff and Reinhart have flagged as the point where debt drags on the economy. And the cumulative fiscal deficits are just 4.4% of GDP, thanks to sounder fiscal policies in Germany.

The only way to make Italy and Spain's problems smaller is to express them as a percentage of Europe's economy. It's could be a parlor trick, but also might be the final, logical extension of the idea of a collective Europe.

Now in Europe, equality now means everyone will get poorer together. Shared sacrifice means private wealth will be confiscated by the State and rationed out until there is nothing left.

Magna - Fryday for Magna?

Finally, the much long awaited 2nd quarterly report had been released now.
As promised by my source that Magna will furbish a good report for the 2nd quarter. Now should be the time for a reason to push the price further.

For more information on Magna result, click here.

Should we be able to see Magna rise and break RM 1.00 tomorrow? Let's see. Internally, they had targeted as high as RM 2.00.

It should be time where the team make good use of their CDS accounts now. The way it is being collected recently definitely shows that something gonna happen once the valid "reason" to push the price appear, thus avoiding UMA.

Bone's TP, RM 1.30 to RM 1.50 for Magna.

Cheers and happy trading.

S&P - Can we trust you in the future?

S&P, are they trying to make themselves in the limelight by saying the opposite, or saying the things that no one would dare to say, doing the things that no one dares to do? Or, are they a bunch of political motivated group, that would use the world as a hostage and crack the head of the leaders?

But in my opinion, I would say that they are more prone to political movement. There might be no concrete fact by looking at it at a surface manner, but somehow, my instinct just tell me.. It is yet another political drama that had taken the world as hostage. Too bad Malaysia could not take political drama that can shake the world because "they" only can afford sex scandal drama. Hehehe

Now let's have a brief read on S&P, yet again..

"The Justice Department is investigating whether the nation’s largest credit ratings agency, Standard & Poor’s, improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities in the years leading up to the financial crisis, according to two people interviewed by the government and another briefed on such interviews.

The investigation began before Standard & Poor’s cut the United States’ AAA credit rating this month, but it is likely to add fuel to the political firestorm that has surrounded that action. Lawmakers and some administration officials have since questioned the agency’s secretive process, its credibility and the competence of its analysts, claiming to have found an error in its debt calculations."

For more detail source, click here

In my opinion, making this kind of mistake and putting is as a reason is really lame. Don't you think so? With all the high end systems and application, how can they make such mistake. By the way, S&P is one of the vendor that provide risk management solutions and system to banks over the world. While S&P provides banking risk management solutions, S&P make mistake themselves? Oh.. Come on come on. This is just too much. In an industry like this, there is just no margin for error, because each error is so costly.

Would you want to put your money in a bank that will show your bank account error from time to time? I think if the bank happen once to give you error in bank account balance, definitely your confidence towards that bank will plunge to the ground, and start to scout for new bank to take care of your wealth.

S&P, just don't beat around the bush anymore. When OSK can do it in DRB, S&P did it on the whole worldwide. We have to just admit that, this industry, we are small little fishes trap between political wars, or for corporate personal agendas.

Cheers and good luck

Stock Watch for 18th August 2011

Market continues to move in an undecided manner, what is worst is that when US are side way trending, Europe heading a little bit lower, KLSE can edge a little bit higher. Interesting ain't? Like a chicken running without the head. Be very careful on this kind of market, because any bad news that is bad enough to trigger a small panic might be able to see a few Ipads, Iphone, in the thin air again, or pocket grows a couple of holes in it.

As we move forward, let's continue to monitor on the following counter that had been anticipated for some real good news.

1.) Sridge - Anticipated good quarterly of EPS 2 cents, more than 6000% increase in EPS compared to the same quarter of last year.

2.) Digistar - Anticipated good result? Or confirmed good result? Hahaha. According to this source, could be a confirmed good result then. Definitely a good go and worth the risk. Remember, nothing is guaranteed here. So no finger pointing when earn money, or earn more money. Cheers

3.) Magna Prima - Inching little by little day by day. Can you see a nice line upwards in the chart? Probably back to 90 cents in no time, or maybe no time to go back to 90 cents, because RM1.00 is waiting to date him?

4.) MISC - Rebounding as we know where is EPF support already. Around RM 6.70 will be EPF support for MISC. Anything goes below there, EPF will continue to shell them. Nice? Let's see this counter moving back upwards to RM 7.75 as we anticipate a good quarterly from MISC this time with a 10 cents dividend that is to be finalized for announcement soon

5.) HapSeng - When under the sea recently. Could be a good time for some rebound moment once the reversal is confirm and fuel by a good market sentiment. TP 1.50

Cheers, happy trading.

Trading amidst market full of uncertainty

There must had been a lot of mixed feeling trading at a time like this. Knowing very well that KLSE is just a "follower market", and will be affected easily by others, example when US tremble, Europe farted accidentally, and in a minor way like Hong Kong sneezed or Japan coughs.

It must be kinda gutsy of you people to keep stock overnight, not knowing what will happen to the DJIA, or Europe market ending. A good applause to that, because high risk, high return... No?

But, sometime, we will need to diversify the risk, and do not just take things as punting on the market, although it will be very hard to differentiate what is punting, what is investing, what is trading.

In my opinion, if you are to trade in a volatile market, with crazy roller coaster movement from north to south, it will be best to trade with those counters that are backed by solid news, solid projects in hand, proven result. I really do not recommend any warrant trading nowadays, not until the market gives a green light for the Bull to come out to play again.

In a bull market, the warrant will come handy by slicing more profits, in a neutral market, warrant will be a 2 edged sword, in a volatile market like now, warrant is liken to a 4 edged sword, either cutting a x4 profit for you or x4 losses, while bear market is just a 8 edged sword. My advice, keep away from warrants, unless you are surely a real good risk taker that is all out for something or nothing. But, do not end up in a highrise building after that. It is just not worth the action.

Cheers and happy reading


Wednesday, 17 August 2011

Magna - Patient is the virtue

I believe that quite a lot of people are waiting on Magna Prima Berhad news.

Well, in a situation like this, it is like a ship that is going to blast away to the sea far away, but when the engine just got started, the big tsunami just came rolling on. These are the unpredictable market sentiment that we just need to admit to - fate.

Well, at the mean time, let's continue to pray and hope for a better market sentiment in the coming days, and I would like to say Patient is the virtue to success. But without doubts, I could understand that this is a very harsh journey altogether, and a lot might drop off throughout this harsh journey.

As we continue to look forward for the fire starter of the show - 2nd Quarterly consolidated financial result, we hope that from there on, we shall cruise to our dream land.

Cheers and have a nice day

Stock Watch for 17th August 2011

Market will remain in a cautious mode because of the wave had reached Europe now. Let's see how Europe will handle off all this issue.

Won't be covering much except for those that are supported by good news, at least some solid news that are out, or some anticipated good news.

1. SRIDGE - A good bargain hunt later today as we might not know what will be the market later. 24 cents is definitely a good bargain for this stock. Continue to anticipate on a good result for the quarter.

2. MMode - Beaten down by the sentiments of the market, looming with fear. Trying to maintain at 30 cents, but came at the wrong timing. Anticipating that the price will linger in 30 cents in the coming days when market sentiment repairs. Yesterday had tested 30 cents, but failed to put a firm hold on 30 cents mark. Will be able to retest this very soon.

3. Digistar - Anticipating a real good result here for Digistar. As covered earlier in an individual post regarding Digistar earlier, anticipating a strong figure and percentage for it's quarterly result. Together with the allocation of Bumi portion, it could be a good boost for the price. According to my related sources, I had received news that the quarterly might show a 4 digit increase in percentage. Buy this news or not, you are the judge.

4.) Affin - Fail to push up, but ending had seen some support accumulating. Definitely for something good to come soon. A better market sentiment will surely mark the return of most investor.

Again, just want to advise player that it is not a very good time to play with warrants. They might be good, but you just cannot time the market, and knows what will be the next move in the market as well. Play within your means.

Cheers and regards

Tuesday, 16 August 2011

Fitch to the rescue - US AAA rating Affirmed

One of the hero had lashed back on S&P downgrade on the sovereign bond of the US. Leading the pace is Fitch Rating Agency. Now let's see what Fitch had to say here.

Fitch Ratings said on Tuesday it affirmed the United States' top-notch credit rating at AAA, giving the world's largest economy a reprieve after it was downgraded by Standard & Poor's little more than a week ago.

Fitch said the outlook for the rating was stable.

"The affirmation of the US 'AAA' sovereign rating reflects the fact that the key pillars of US's exceptional creditworthiness remains intact: its pivotal role in the global financial system and the flexible, diversified and wealthy economy that provides its revenue base," Fitch said in its statement.
"Monetary and exchange rate flexibility further enhances the capacity of the economy to absorb and adjust to 'shocks'."

However, Fitch warned the outlook for the rating depended on the economy and the political process in Washington to reduce the public debt.

It said an upward revision to medium to long term projections for public debt either as a result of weaker than expected economic recovery or failure of the joint committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction would likely put the United States on negative outlook.

"The rating action would most likely be a revision of the rating Outlook to Negative, which would indicate a greater than 50 percent chance of a downgrade over a two-year horizon. Less likely would be a one-notch downgrade," the statement said.

Source here

Debt debt debt - Never ending story

Market continue to remain in a much volatile manner after the US debt downgrade, with the current Europe debt ridden country, struggling to balance off their debts.

I am starting to wonder in this debt issues. When can the whole world get over on this and start building up a better economy for the current generation and the next generation to come? When will all this stop and everyone focuses on the greater planning, to improve the life of the people?

All these are fairyland dreams. It will never ever happen in this world, especially on Earth. The reason is, everyone that born into the world had 1 thing in common. Human is greedy in nature. Tell me which person that you met had never in once be greedy. Yes? No? I bet the answer is a total no. Everyone will want more and more and more. And when there is nothing more to get, they created something out of nothing to get something.

This debt issue will never end, and it will just continue and continue, like a snowball effect rolling and rolling and rolling. After all, debt is created by human. Like it or hate it, everyone will be in debt at least once in your life, unless you are from a cash rich family. Here, only if you know how to twist and turn, and dig some sort of special hole, you will then only get to utilized the debt to benefit your own, and the debt, passed around and around until the last person who is holding on to the debt cannot get rid of it and goes KaboOM!

Let's see how will the debt continue to roll and roll. After US, now Europe. 10 years down the road, we will see Asia in a bad debt situation? Hahahaha.

Cheers

Digistar - Exploding quarterly to come

Dear comrades,

I had just received some good news from my sources on this counter today. Will be a good trading buy from now on until the real show comes out.

The real show will be fueled by the following:-
1. Exploding quarterly result compared to same quarter of last year. (Coming very soon)
2. Bumi Issue
3. Listing to Main Board, no more ACE.

No need long grandmother and grandfather story, this is summarized enough for a quick and easy read.

More action to come on the 2nd half of the day.

Cheers, and TP will be 70 cents according to my source.
Bone TP, RM 0.60.

Cheers and happy trading.

Monday, 15 August 2011

Stock Watch for 16th August 2011

Today KLCI ended on a firm note, giving a last minute thrust, nearly touched 1500 point again, as there are no signs of slowing down in the market despite the recent hit back.

Is the market confidence back again? We shall see in the following few days.

Here is my quickie on the counter that could be monitored, or a good buy counter at a real good bargaining price.

1.) Affin - Charging up based on good quarterly report. But beware of opening high, selling down. Know where to enter, and focus on the further goal, which is a TP of RM3.60, which is achievable in my opinion.

2.) Hiro - It just should be linger below 80 cents. Company had been giving a strong buy back recently into their treasury. Good trading buy, TP at RM 0.90.

3.) MahSing - Work not done. Lingering below RM 2.50 is a 40% done work. There should be more show here. Sharks had been accumulating, and the potential in this counter is there, based on projects in hand. TP RM 2.85 in a short term basis.

4.) M-Mode - Today had been testing 29 cents, and the final moment had wipe out 29 cents. Maintain my call on M-Mode, to break 30 cents. Future Digistar.

5.) Sridge - If you had not check in, better do so I guess. Anticipating a good quarterly result to be furnished out, and that could be the next M-Mode, Digistar in the making. Don't be left out in this good chance. Let's pray for a real good quarterly for SRIDGE!

6.) SmartTag - Volume detected for today. Can repeat the chart of AMedia here? What do you think? I am seeing AMedia trend here in the beginning of the chart. Haha. Probably, they are bind to be together? Who knows? Tomorrow might be looking at 28.5 cents.

7.) TWS - Show not finished. Ended at 8.75, another 25 cents to my targeted TP of RM9.00. Raising my TP to RM 9.50 as demand continue to surge.

8.) Kencana - Nothing much to say about this. Can go back to RM2.9x range in my opinion. SapCres is going to reach home soon, Kencana should not be so far away. Cheers

9.) Bursa - Does not belong to this price at all. RM 7.50 will be a good stop for the first hike.

10.) Perisai - Giving back some show here. Rising on strength, as heavy big lots dealing are seen. A good entry tomorrow should the momentum continues. TP RM0.78

Cheers. Have a nice day tossing money around

FIMA Corporation Berhad - Time for a rebound soon

Should the market continue its bullish rebound moment, and keeping a good sentiment overall in the globe, I am expecting Fimacor to make a spectacular rebound in the KLSE.

Actually, this counter did caught my attention a few time, seeing that it had a strong establish business.
Its diversified business includes:-
- Manufacturing
- Plantation
- Property Management
- Banknote Printing

Fimacor had remained steady in its dividend, and got a good track of dividend record, which is increasing year by year.
2006 - 10.8 cents
2007 - 11 cents
2008 - 11.9 cents
2009 - 12.8 cents
2010 - 15 cents
2011 - ?

Looking at the growth, I will expect Fimacor to rebound back to RM 6.00 easily, with a small issued shares of just 82million+ circulating.

Good buy + Hold for capital gain and good dividend.

Affin - The game show is on

Finally, Affin Bank had released its much awaited 2nd quarterly consolidated financial result.




Well. There are much mixed feeling towards this counter. 2nd quarter had been displaying a performing result compared to the same quarter last year. But by comparing the half yearly result of last year and the current year, Affin Bank might be a little bit lower, by a small margin of around 2%. But is this going to stop Affin Bank from going into a rampaging mode.

Frankly speaking, this result had went out of my expectation, as I had sourced informing me that the result will be at around 120million in profits after all the operations cost. In fact, another surplus of 14 million from my source information as well. This is of course a very good news in fact.

A beaten down counter prior to this S&P downgrade syndrome that had affected the whole world share market, could this be a golden moment to hunt and punt into Affin Bank now when it's price is still lingering at the range of RM 3.1x to 3.2x? In my opinion, this is surely a GOOD BUY, and there will be more better moment to come along. Trading below its NTA currently, I am expecting Affin Bank to reach RM 3.60 in a short term, and tomorrow will be a good trading buy, riding on strong news. Mid Term TP at RM3.85

All the best.

Advertising - Bonescythe Property

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4.) Understanding different roles in real estate - http://boneproperty.blogspot.com/2011/08/understanding-different-role-in.html

Cheers and have a good time

Sunday, 14 August 2011

Stock Watch for 15th August 2011

As Asia country will take the lead to start the stock market rolling for the coming week first, we would be anticipating that tomorrow could be a small cautious mode bullish moment for KLSE. DJIA had ended it's spree with a positive 166 point upwards, securing back above 11,000 point.

What could be tomorrow trend? Open high, selling down? Or open high, frying higher? Or open down, frying up? Or worst, open low, selling lower?
In my opinion.. It could be open high, selling down as the bad market sentiment had not subsided yet due to issues after issues starting from Japan, Egypt, Libya, US, now Europe. It will just keep going on and on, without a rest to be honest.

Just a quick pick for the week, especially for tomorrow.
1.) SRIDGE - Strong anticipation of producing a good 2nd quarterly consolidated financial result. Anticipate EPS nearing to 2 cents for the 2nd quarter, and this will surely give a good boost to their share prices. TP RM0.35.

2.) MMode - Announced an improved quarterly result recently. Due to bad market sentiment, open high, selling down. But personally speaking, this counter should not be lingering at 20 cents range already. Putting in a forward EPS of coming to 8 cents, this counter should be able to penetrate to the 30 cents mark.

3.) Magna - Should the market be favorable, and quarterly to announce, this counter should be able to see light. Anticipating a good 2nd quarterly result based on sources that are updating me on this counter.

4.) Bursa - Should market sentiment repair up, I would expect this counter to give a strong rebound in time to come as Bursa had been doing better compared to the past financial result. Risky buy during this market sentiment, but it will be worth the risk if market really does recover back to its form. TP RM8.00

5.) E&O - Beaten down counter. Fundamental remains, and future projected revenue as well. Worth the risk to buy in and hold. Should the market recover, expect counter to swing back to RM 1.60

6.) MahSing - Down and back up despite very rough market sentiment. Looks like RM 2.40 is a good point to enter as I am seeing that sharks are willing to collect the shares until RM 2.40 for the time being. Anticipating a good push when they are ready for this. TP RM2.85, medium holding.

7.) TWS - Food will never be wrong in a market like this. Beaten down recently, and nearing to their support line RM8.00. Good potential, buy and hold. Possible show for a RM 9.20 in the coming days should market sentiment gets good.

8.) MBSB - Despite clashing with the titan (bad market sentiment), been holding up firmly above RM 1.50. The willingness to remain above RM1.50 is strong, and can foresee a strong upward push when market gets better. Be alert, and don't miss the flight. TP RM 1.75

9.) Affin - I can call this unlucky star really. I knew of people collecting this share and getting ready for some action, but they met some bears along their way, hampering all the effort. But, things are not settled just like this. There must surely be some revenge back into here. At RM 3.10, it is definitely not finished now.
See you at RM 3.60

10.) Cybert - Cold counter, but interesting enough to cover based on its no news high volume movement. Trade with care, no news = no ceiling. Technically, it could go up to RM 0.17

Cheers and have a nice day tossing with $$$.

28 firms shortlisted for MRT civil works, station and depot packages

Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd (Prasarana) has shortlisted 28 individual and joint venture (JV) companies that are eligible to bid for various elevated civil works, stations and depot packages under the multi-billion ringgit My Rapid Transit (MRT) infrastructure project.

Prasarana in a statement on Thursday said the tenders comprising works packages for elevated civil works (eight packages), stations (eight packages) and depots (two packages) would be called in stages, beginning next month until December 2012.

"The tender for the first stage, which involves two civil works packages will be issued early next month," said Prasarana group managing director, Shahril Mokhtar.

He said the two packages are a 5.4 km stretch from Taman Bukit Ria to Plaza Phoenix in Cheras and the other covering a 5.2km stretch from Taman Suntex to Bandar Tun Hussein Onn.

Shahril said the 18 works packages were divided into two categories -- open and Bumiputera -- and applicants were evaluated based on several aspects, including financial capabilities, track record, experiences and health and environment practices.

For the JV submissions, he said technical and financial evaluations were carried out on the individual companies, with the total score of their technical and financial points combined based on their equity percentage.

He said the 28 shortlisted companies were chosen from among 195 who submitted applications, following two public advertisements.

Among the companies shortlisted for all three type of packages (elevated civil works, stations and depots) in the open category are Sunway Construction Sdn Bhd, Muhibbah Engineering (M) Sdn Bhd, IJM Construction Sdn Bhd, Gadang Engineering (M) Sdn Bhd and Loh & Loh Construction Sdn Bhd, he added.

Meanwhile, in the Bumiputera category, Naim Engineering Sdn Bhd, Trans Resources Corporation Sdn Bhd, TSR Bina Sdn Bhd, Ahmad Zaki Sdn Bhd, HRA Teguh Sdn Bhd, Syarikat Muhibah Perniagaan & Pembinaan Sdn Bhd were shortlisted for all three type of packages.

Tenders for the other works packages will be announced in due course.

Considered the country's biggest infrastructure project as part of the Greater Klang Valley Master Plan, the MRT will provide the backbone service to the existing public transportation system, and be integrated with the existing LRT, KL Monorail and KTM services.

Cutting through the city centre from Sungai Buloh to Kajang, the new MRT will run for approximately 51 km.

This includes 9.5 km through underground tunnels and be serviced by 27 elevated stations, seven stations underground and depots at Sungai Buloh and Kajang. - Bernama

Saturday, 13 August 2011

No more confidence? Or the market confidence being played around?

U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest point in more than three decades in early August, as fears of a stalled recovery gelled with despair over government policies, a survey released on Friday showed.
The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary August reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 54.9, the lowest since May 1980, down from 63.7 in July. It was well below the the median forecast of 63.0 among economists polled by Reuters.

High unemployment, stagnant wages and the protracted debate over raising the U.S. government debt ceiling spooked consumers,polled before the downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt by Standard &Poor's.
"Never before in the history of the surveys have so many consumers spontaneously mentioned negative aspects of the government's role," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement.
The survey's gauge of consumer expectations slipped to 45.7, also the lowest since May of 1980, from July's 56.0 and below a predicted reading of 55.3.

The Obama administration received poor ratings from 61 percent of respondents, the worst showing among all prior heads of state.

"This was more than the simple recognition that traditional monetary and fiscal policy measures were largely spent; it was the realization that the government was unable or unwilling to act," Curtin added.
Two-thirds of all consumers reported that the economy had recently worsened, and just one-in-five anticipated any gains during the year ahead.

Bad times in the economy were expected by 75 percent of all consumers in early August, just below the all-time peak of 82 percent in 1980.

The survey's barometer of current economic conditions was 69.3 in August, down versus 75.8 in July and below a forecast of 74.3.

The survey's one-year inflation expectation remained stuck at 3.4 percent, while the five-to-10-year inflation outlook also flatlined at 2.9 percent in August. – Reuters

Friday, 12 August 2011

Maxwell - Confused to Convinced?

Maxwell, can it grab some limelight after all? What do you think about it?
I would say, yes.. This counter will be able to grab some limelight as they will brace for a good rebounding session soon after the US fear had been brush away, while the Europe buck up on this as well.

As per my previous posting here, I had stated that it is a good time to buy at fear for something that is confirmed, solid facts, good news in hand already. It is always never wrong to head for something that had been assured off. Yes, in share market, anything can happen. The only thing that you guys cannot understand is, why are there people still willing to throw at 0.335 and below although the dividend had been announced, and it will be giving a yield with more than 10% return if they are to throw is below 0.335. Yes, it sounded so ridiculous indeed, that people started to wonder, and wonder, and thinking, and hesitate.. This is the illness of the market, they just cannot believe that it is too good to be true, especially during market like this. But, I would understand because in times like this, things are just out of mind as people want their cash more than anything else. It is a norm when the market is looming with all kind of rumors, fear, anxiety, uncertainty as well.

Now let's look further into Maxwell.
Maxwell Group specializes in the design and manufacturing of sports shoes for domestic and overseas customers, which comprise mainly trading houses and brand distributors, via their wholly-owned subsidiary company, Zhenxing Shoes. They manufacture sports shoes on an OEM basis (i.e. They manufacture based on the specifications and designs provided by their customers) and on an ODM basis (i.e. They design and develop sports shoes for their customers’ selection and manufacture the selected designs for their customers). With a strong design and development capabilities, they are able to develop an average of 1,000 shoe designs per annum for their customers for selection. Zhenxing Shoes is an OEM and ODM for various third party brands. Currently, they have the capacity to produce up to 8 million pairs of sports shoes per year at their manufacturing facilities located in Zhushuxia Industrial Zone, Jinjiang City, Fujian Province, PRC, through their subsidiary, Zhenxing Shoes.

Now, as China is gaining ground in the world economy, I would say that China companies have good prospectus in the globalization in the coming days. But, we will still have to execute our due diligence in selecting good company that are having genuine operations and also good prospectus. For a OEM shoe maker, I would say that their industry will be ever green because as the population increase, the demand of shoes will just increase as more and more feet come to the earth. Mind you, feet come in pairs.. Hahaha

Now a short look at the dividend yield at each different stages, starting from 36 cents
0.36 - 9.3%
0.37 - 9.1%
0.38 - 8.8%
0.39 - 8.6%
0.40 - 8.4%
0.45 - 7.7%
0.50 - 7%

Bone's TP: At least 40 cents, which will be the strong strong base. Heading up to 50 cents is really a good bonus.

Cheers and happy trading

DVM - As the mystery continues on

As covered here before on 3rd August 2011, there is something behind DVM that is cooking up and down again and again. What could be the main ingredient of the cooking behind? Doesn't this just sound very fishy indeed? What do you have to say?

I am much convinced that there is some kind of strong news that is propelling all this swing in the counter, going up and down, from a high of 0.28, and down to ground at 0.13, and up again to 0.21. Wow.. What a ride for all those people who are in this counter. Don't you think so?

According to my sources that I do trust for his accurate news which strike right to the heart, he informed me that they will be something as big as a M&A (Merger and Acquisition) happening. Who is this Raymond Yip Wai Mun who is accumulating tons and tons of DVM crappy shares? What do you think? He is the biggest fox in the current showcase now. Accumulating at high end? He is crazy? Too much money and don't know where to use them at? Come on, it is not that easy actually.

Looking at that volume, I am foreseeing that this counter could be touching 30 cents anytime soon, and right after that, crashing down again, and up and down and there is goes. Looking at how people get burned badly here, and how people get tons of money here.. So are you ready to be the next big thing? Hahaha.

This is a very hard counter to play with. It plays a lot in the psychological side of the trader, and also the holding power + the news that the trader is having. Entry and exit point is very important here, as there will always be plenty of swing happening in the counter.

In my opinion, if you really want to try your luck and trade in this counter, remember to put stop loss point whenever you enter. If not, remember to use 3 stages entering method, do not finish all in 1 go. Enter wisely, identify volume and strength, and know when to take profit or cut loss. As long as the news is not out or confirmed, expect to see more and more swing happening in this counter. Wanna proof yourself that you are real good, and want to test your strategy, probably you would want to put this as your testing? Haha.

Take care, happy trading with this counter, DVM